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Sobreapreciações Cambiais e Composição de Comércio Exterior Nos Países Emergentes

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  • Marcos Rocha
  • Nelson Marconi

Abstract

Este trabalho visa avaliar a hipótese de que sobreapreciações da taxa de câmbio real (TCR), à medida que induzem a substituição de bens manufaturados domésticos por importados, tendem a reduzir a participação dos setores que os produzem nas exportações dos países emergentes. Assim, é testado o efeito de sobreapreciações sobre a participação dos setores primário e manufatureiro na composição da pauta de exportação dos países emergentes para o período entre 1970 a 2004. Para isso, estimou-se um índice de sobreapreciação cambial por meio de técnicas de painel cointegrado dinamic ordinary least squares (DOLS). Os resultados evidenciam que os episódios de sobreapreciação caracterizados pelo índice têm relação negativa com a participação de manufaturados nas exportações. Palavras-chave: câmbio; comércio exterior; exportação; países emergentes. This paper aims at assessing the effects of real exchange rate overvaluation over the export composition for developing countries in a time span of 1970-2004. For this intent, it is estimated an exchange rate overvaluation index by using panel cointegration techniques (Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS)). The results show that episodes of overvaluation are negative correlated with manufacturing exports share. In the long run, since such process induces the substitution of domestic for imported manufactured goods, the overvaluation of the TCR can reduce that share in emerging countries. Keywords: exchange rates; foreign trade; export; emerging countries.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA in its series Discussion Papers with number 1766.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1766

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