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Mapeamento de Taxas Bayesianas, com Aplicação ao Mapeamento de Homicídios

Author

Listed:
  • Alexandre Xavier Ywata de Carvalho
  • Gabriela Drummond Marques da Silva
  • Gilberto Rezende de Almeida Júnior
  • Pedro Henrique de Melo Albuquerque

Abstract

O mapeamento da taxa de ocorrência de eventos é uma importante ferramenta para o direcionamento de políticas públicas. Apesar disso, o tema não tem recebido a devida atenção por parte da maioria dos pesquisadores. Em muitos trabalhos, os índices utilizados apresentam sérios problemas quando as unidades geográficas possuem uma pequena população sob risco e quando o número de casos observados é muito baixo, como visto em Pringle (1996). Este trabalho pretende fazer uma revisão sobre o uso da estatística bayesiana como possibilidade para minimização da variabilidade dos dados. A estatística bayesiana discutida é chamada empírica, pois utiliza informação amostral para composição da distribuição a priori. As taxas estudadas serão exemplificadas por meio da análise de ocorrência de homicídios por município, em todo o Brasil, no ano de 2008. The mapping of frequency rates of events is an important tool for guiding public policy. Nevertheless, this problem has not received adequate attention by most researchers. In many studies, the used ratios have serious problems when the geographic units have a small population at risk and when the observed number of cases is very low, as seen in Pringle (1996). This paper intends to review the use of Bayesian statistics in order to minimize data variability. The Bayesian statistics discussed is called empirical because it uses information for the composition of the sample prior distribution. The studied rates will be exemplified by analyzing the occurrence of homicides by throughout Brazil in 2008.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandre Xavier Ywata de Carvalho & Gabriela Drummond Marques da Silva & Gilberto Rezende de Almeida Júnior & Pedro Henrique de Melo Albuquerque, 2011. "Mapeamento de Taxas Bayesianas, com Aplicação ao Mapeamento de Homicídios," Discussion Papers 1662, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
  • Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1662
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