Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Volatilidade De Renda E A Cobertura Do Programa Bolsa Família

Contents:

Author Info

  • Sergei Soares

Abstract

Este texto argumenta que há uma incompatibilidade entre os critérios de concessão do benefício Programa Bolsa Família (PBF) e a metodologia usada para definir suas metas de cobertura. Enquanto as regras de concessão rezam que os beneficiários, na ausência de grandes variações positivas na renda, têm direito ao benefício por um período de dois anos, as metas são estimadas com base em pesquisas domiciliares transversais ? ou seja, aquelas que não seguem seus entrevistados ao longo do tempo. Na presença de volatilidade na renda dos indivíduos, os dois são incompatíveis. O texto usa a Pesquisa Mensal de Emprego (PME), que contém um painel de quatro meses, para estimar a volatilidade na renda de indivíduos com o perfil próximo ao perfil do Bolsa Família. As conclusões são que a volatilidade é alta e as estimativas de pobreza longitudinais de quatro meses são dois terços maiores que as estimativas de pobreza transversais, feitas em um único mês. Portanto, o método de estabelecer metas de cobertura do Bolsa Família deve ser mudado. This text argues that the criteria used to define Bolsa Família benefits and the criteria used to establish coverage targets are inconsistent. While individual concession criteria are that beneficiaries should be paid for two years if they do not suffer large upward income mobility, the coverage targets are estimated using a household surveys that interview a cross-section of individuals and thus do not follow them through time. If poor individuals suffer income volatility the two criteria are inconsistent and Bolsa Família will always have an eligible public that outnumbers its coverage targets. The monthly employment survey (PME) follows a four month panel of individuals and its thus used to estimate the income volatility of those whose profile is close to the Bolsa Familia profile. My conclusions are that income volatility is high and that four month longitudinal poverty is about 2/3 higher than one month crosssection poverty. The conclusion is that the methodology used to estimate Bolsa Família coverage targets should be changed.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.ipea.gov.br/portal/images/stories/PDFs/TDs/td_1459.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA in its series Discussion Papers with number 1459.

as in new window
Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1459

Contact details of provider:
Postal: SBS - Quadra 01 - Bloco J - Ed. BNDES, Brasília, DF - 70076-90
Phone: +55(061)315-5000
Fax: +55(61)321-1597
Email:
Web page: http://www.ipea.gov.br
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

References

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1459. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Fabio Schiavinatto).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.