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Acumulação de Capital, Distribuição e Crescimento Econômico no Brasil: Uma Análise dos Determinantes de Longo Prazo

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  • Miguel A. P. Bruno
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    Abstract

    Este trabalho propõe uma análise preliminar das principais tendências do crescimento econômico brasileiro considerando-se seus determinantes de longo prazo. No período pós-liberalização, novas oportunidades surgiram para o país reencontrar uma nova trajetória de desenvolvimento. Mas, apesar da estabilidade de preços e das condições favoráveis para o comércio exterior, a performance macroeconômica brasileira tem permanecido muito abaixo da média histórica e do que se espera de uma economia ainda em desenvolvimento. Por outro lado, a melhora no curto prazo de alguns indicadores macroeconômicos tem sido interpretada como se já representasse a entrada da economia brasileira em um longo período de crescimento econômico sustentável. No entanto, as evidências empíricas mostram uma baixa propensão a investir do lucro médio e a permanência de taxas ainda muito reduzidas de crescimento do estoque de capital fixo produtivo. Uma ênfase especial é dada à acumulação de capital e às noções de regime de acumulação ou de crescimento. São identificados e comparados três diferentes regimes que se sucederam entre 1950 e 2006. Entre os resultados encontrados destacam-se a emergência e a consolidação, no período pós-liberalização e pós-Real, de um regime do tipo finance-dominate accumulation regime, segundo a taxonomia proposta pela literatura econômica internacional. This paper proposes a preliminary analysis of the main tendencies of the Brazilian economic growth considering their long-term determinants. During the postliberalization period, new opportunities have appeared to Brazil in order to meet again a new development path. But in spite of the price stabilization and the favorable conditions of the world trade, the Brazilian macroeconomic performance has been below the historical average, and far from the expectations for a country that still in development. On the other hand, the improvement, in the short period, of some macroeconomics indicators has been interpreted as if it already represented the entrance of the Brazilian economy in a long period of sustainable economic growth. However, the empirical evidences still show a low propensity to invest the mean profit, and the permanence of very reduced growth rates from the stock of productive fixed capital. A special emphasis is given to the capital accumulation and the notions of accumulation regime or growth regime. Three differents regimes are identified between 1950 and 2006. Among the analytical results it stands out the emergency and consolidation, in the post-liberalization and post-Real period, of a financedominate accumulation regime, according to the taxonomy proposed by the international economic literature.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA in its series Discussion Papers with number 1364.

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    Length: 33 pages
    Date of creation: Nov 2008
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1364

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