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O Crescimento Econômico e a Competitividade Chinesa

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  • Marcelo Braga Nonnenberg
  • Paulo Mansur Levy
  • Fernanda De Negri
  • Katarina Pereira da Costa
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    Abstract

    O artigo discute as principais causas do forte crescimento da economia chinesa nos últimos 27 anos. Apesar de este ser um fato amplamente conhecido, menos compreendidas, no entanto, são as causas desse processo, ou, pelo menos, suas características e elementos definidores mais importantes. Dentre as causas apontadas em diversos estudos, destacam-se os investimentos diretos externos (IDEs) e as medidas de política industrial, como, por exemplo, os incentivos fiscais concedidos a setores determinados localizados em zonas econômicas especiais. Esses fatores, certamente, contribuíram para o espetacular crescimento econômico chinês, mas estão longe de explicar adequadamente esse processo. Afinal, algumas dessas características estiveram presentes em diversos outros países e regiões, sem que o efeito fosse nem ao menos parecido. Assim, um dos principais objetivos deste trabalho é lançar novas hipóteses quanto às fontes do desempenho econômico chinês e suas características, propondo uma visão sobre o desenvolvimento recente daquele país, a qual procure ir além das explicações mais conhecidas e que busque, na história recente e na geografia, algumas pistas para esse processo. A adequada compreensão dessas características e o seu ordenamento ao longo da história por ordem de importância são úteis para determinar quão específicas são as condições do crescimento chinês e que políticas poderiam ser replicadas no Brasil. Em segundo lugar, examinar as perspectivas de crescimento da China. As principais questões que se colocam são: primeiro, até quando conseguirá a China manter o atual padrão de crescimento e, segundo, como manter os atuais níveis de superávit em balanço de pagamentos e de acumulação de reservas? The article discusses the main reasons behind the strong growth process of the Chinese economy in the last 27 years. Although this is a widely known fact, less well understood are the causes of this process, or at least its features and more important elements. Among the reasons noted by many authors, are foreign direct investment (IDEs) and industrial policy measures, such as tax incentives granted to certain industries located in special economic zones. These factors undoubtedly contributed to the Chinese spectacular economic growth, but are far from adequately explaining this process. After all, some of these features were present in several other countries and regions, but the effect was not the same. Therefore, one of the main purposes of this paper is to present some assumptions concerning the sources of Chinese economic performance and its characteristics, providing a vision about the recent development of this country that seeks to go beyond the explanations most known and to look in recent history and geography, some clues to this process. A proper understanding of these characteristics is useful to determine how specific are the conditions of growth in Chinese policies that could be replicated in Brazil. In second place, to analyze the growth prospects for China. The main questions are, first, to which extent will China continue to grow at the present pace. Second, how to keep the present levels of balance of payment surplus and foreign exchange accumulation?

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA in its series Discussion Papers with number 1333.

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    Length: 32 pages
    Date of creation: Apr 2008
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1333

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