Simulando o Desempenho do Sistema Previdenciário e Seus Efeitos Sobre Pobreza sob Mudanças nas Regras de Pensão e Aposentadoria

In this paper we elaborate a detailed survey concerning the access rules to public pensions benefits across twenty European, Asian and American countries, which are then compared to the Brazilian system. This system has practically no constraint upon death pensions claims, what makes it one of the world?s most generous arrangements. In the case of retirement benefits, among the sample countries Brazil is the country with the laxest rules for scheduled retirement concessions. Unlike Brazil, all of them define a minimum age limit and most do not distinguish between genders or among social categories. Following this comparison, we empirically simulate the application of each country?s different rules to the Brazilian demographic pattern. We attest that in all of these cases there is either a reduction of beneficiaries, a cut in the value of the benefits, or both. Finally, we estimate the hypothetic case where we decreased the value of the benefit, but no exclusion of beneficiaries was made. Using that potentially saved amount, we estimated the impact on poverty and on income distribution of an alternative redistribution of that sum. The results indicate a fall in the level of poverty among children and teenagers and stability in the poverty level among the usual public pensions system beneficiaries.