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Political Electoral Cycles And Public Investments In Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Rodrigo Octávio Orair
  • Raphael Rocha Gouvêa
  • Ésio Moreira Leal

Abstract

This paper provides new evidence for the empirical literature that investigates the presence of political cycles in fiscal policy and, more precisely, public investments in Brazil. The approach differs from most of the studies for applying the state-space modeling. The greatest benefit is to estimate the cyclical component endogenously and with greater precision. Another difference is that it considers the presence of cycles in central, state and local investments and central government capital transfers. This allows a wider picture of the general government and intergovernmental relationships. The main contributions come from the identification of qualitative differences among the political cycles of each government level – pointing to a smaller degree of direct influence of local elections as it goes from local to state and central levels – and a close relation between cycles of central government transfers and cycles of state and local governments. Este trabalho provê novas evidências para a literatura empírica que explora a presença de ciclos políticos eleitorais nos investimentos públicos no Brasil. A abordagem se diferencia da maior parte dos trabalhos da área por aplicar a modelagem de espaço de estados. Sua maior vantagem é estimar o componente cíclico com maior precisão e de maneira endógena. Outra distinção é considerar a presença de ciclos nos três entes federados, além das transferências do governo federal, permitindo-se uma visão mais abrangente da administração pública e das inter-relações federativas. As contribuições mais relevantes foram: i) a identificação de diferenças qualitativas nos ciclos eleitorais de cada ente federado, constatando-se menor grau de influência direta das eleições municipais conforme se caminha da esfera local para as esferas estadual e federal; e ii) a observação de estreita relação entre os ciclos bienais das transferências do governo federal e dos investimentos dos demais entes federados.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodrigo Octávio Orair & Raphael Rocha Gouvêa & Ésio Moreira Leal, 2015. "Political Electoral Cycles And Public Investments In Brazil," Discussion Papers 0202, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
  • Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:0202
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bugarin, Mauricio Soares & Ferreira, Ivan Fecury, 2007. "Transferências Voluntárias e Ciclo Político-Orçamentário no Federalismo Fiscal Brasileiro," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 61(3), March.
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