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Theory and Empirics of Real Exchange Rates in Developing Countries

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  • Raimundo Soto

    ()
    (Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.)

  • Ibrahim A. Elbadawi

Abstract

This paper develops a general equilibrium model of the real exchange rate for a small open economy, taking into account often overlooked characteristics of developing economies, such as the presence of significant aid flows, terms of trade variability, distorting trade taxes, and concentration of exports on natural resources. The equilibrium RER results from the intertemporal, optimal decisions of households on consumption, production, and trade of different goods, conditional upon government policies and external conditions. The model derives a concept of the sustainable current account based on the yield of the discounted present value of net exports which provides a rigorous framework for the computation of the equilibrium RER and misalignment indexes. We test the model in a sample of 73 developing countries in the 1970-2004 period using the PMG estimator proposed by Pesaran et al. (1999) and find it to be an encompassing representation of the data. We also develop a methodology to compute the misalignment of the real exchange rate, which requires to compute the permanent components of the determinants of the RER and to identify the equilibrium path for each country.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. in its series Documentos de Trabajo with number 324.

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Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ioe:doctra:324

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Keywords: Real exchange rates; general equilibrium; misalignment; panel data;

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Cited by:
  1. Rodrigo Caputo & Miguel Fuentes, 2012. "Government Spending and the Real Exchange Rate: a Cross - Country Perspective," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 655, Central Bank of Chile.
  2. Cécile Couharde & Issiaka Coulibaly & David Guerreiro & Valérie Mignon, 2012. "Revisiting the theory of optimum currency areas: Is the CFA franc zone sustainable?," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-34, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  3. Rodrigo Caputo & Mariel Siravegna, 2014. "RER Appreciation After the Great Recession: Misalignment or Fundamental Correction?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 718, Central Bank of Chile.
  4. Valdes, Alberto & Jara, Esteban, 2007. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Chile," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper 48391, World Bank.
  5. Yougbaré, Lassana, 2011. "Exchange rate arrangements and misalignments: contrasting words and deeds," MPRA Paper 32362, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Ibrahim Ahmed Elbadawi & Raimundo Soto, 2012. "Resource Rents, Political Institutions and Economic Growth," Documentos de Trabajo 413, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..

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