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Business Cycle and Political Election Outcomes: New Evidence from The Chilean Democracy

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Author Info
Rodrigo Cerda () (Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.)
Rodrigo Vergara () (Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.)

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Abstract

This paper explores the influence of economic variables in Chilean presidential elections. We use a panel where the dependent variable corresponds to the share of the vote obtained by the incumbent at a municipal level in the presidential elections of 1989, 1993 and 1999. We focus on the unemployment rate and the output-gap and find that both have a significant influence on the vote. The estimations also indicate that variables such as the crime rate, the poverty rate and the political coalition of the mayor in each municipality have an influence on the vote.

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File URL: http://www.economia.puc.cl/index/download.asp?id_publicacion=827
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. in its series Documentos de Trabajo with number 295.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ioe:doctra:295

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Related research
Keywords: Political elections; business cycle; unemployment;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Peltzman, Sam, 1990. "How Efficient Is the Voting Market?," Journal of Law & Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(1), pages 27-63, April.
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  2. Fair, Ray C, 1996. "Econometrics and Presidential Elections," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 89-102, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Fair, Ray C, 1978. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 159-73, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Peltzman, Sam, 1992. "Voters as Fiscal Conservatives," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 327-61, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Stigler, George J, 1973. "General Economic Conditions and National Elections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(2), pages 160-67, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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