Business Cycle and Political Election Outcomes: New Evidence from The Chilean Democracy
AbstractThis paper explores the influence of economic variables in Chilean presidential elections. We use a panel where the dependent variable corresponds to the share of the vote obtained by the incumbent at a municipal level in the presidential elections of 1989, 1993 and 1999. We focus on the unemployment rate and the output-gap and find that both have a significant influence on the vote. The estimations also indicate that variables such as the crime rate, the poverty rate and the political coalition of the mayor in each municipality have an influence on the vote.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. in its series Documentos de Trabajo with number 295.
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Political elections; business cycle; unemployment;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Longitudinal Data; Spatial Time Series
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
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