The biggest migration challenge ever

Population in Africa increased almost six fold in the past seven decades, from 229 million in 1950 to 1.3 billion today, and it will continue to rise to around 4.5 billion in the year 2100, before stabilizing (Figure 1 - next page). Africa’s population structure will also change in this period: Africa will be the only region where the share of the working age population (aged 15-64) will increase, notably from 56% today to 64% in 2100. Thus decline of the dependency ratio will not necessarily be a demographic gift. Whether it will spur development or not will depend on the ability of the economy to absorb and productively employ the extra workers. If the labor supply cannot be absorbed locally, the push to migrate will increase. Besides, large numbers of unemployed youth also increase the risk of political instability, which could further fuel migration. As Professor Nabli predicted at the panel discussion: Europe is at the eve of the biggest migration challenge it has ever faced.