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How Should Monetary Policy Respond to Exogenous Changes in the Relative Price of Oil?

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MICHAEL PLANTE () (Indiana University, Ball State University)
Abstract

This paper examines welfare maximizing optimal monetary policy and simple mon- etary policy rules in a New Keynesian model that incorporates oil as an intermediate input and as a consumption good. I show under several dierent assumptions that the optimal policy focuses on stabilizing some combination of nominal wage and core ination while allowing for signicant movements in value added and CPI (headline) in- ation. Wage indexation to headline ination does not change this result. The optimal response of the nominal rate is sensitive to the assumptions of the model. For all cases examined the optimal policy is well approximated, in welfare terms, by a simple policy rule that suciently stabilizes core ination. Empirical evidence using data from after 1986 supports the hypothesis that the Federal Reserve has been responding to real oil price changes in a manner similar to what the model says is optimal.

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Paper provided by Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington in its series Caepr Working Papers with number 2009-013.

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Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2009
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Handle: RePEc:inu:caeprp:2009-013

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This page was last updated on 2009-12-17.


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