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Specification Tests of Parametric Dynamic Conditional Quantiles

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  • Juan Carlos Escanciano

    ()
    (Indiana University Bloomington)

  • Carlos Velasco

    ()
    (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid)

Abstract

This article proposes omnibus specification tests of parametric dynamic quantile regression models. Contrary to the existing procedures, we allow for a flexible and general specification framework where a possibly continuum of quantiles are simultaneously specified. This is the case for many econometric applications for both time series and cross section data which require a global diagnostic tool. We study the asymptotic distribution of the test statistics under fairly weak conditions on the serial dependence in the underlying data generating process. It turns out that the asymptotic null distribution depends on the data generating process and the hypothesized model. We propose a subsampling procedure for approximating the asymptotic critical values of the tests. An appealing property of the proposed tests is that they do not require estimation of the non-parametric (conditional) sparsity function. A Monte Carlo study compares the proposed tests and shows that the asymptotic results provide good approximations for small sample sizes. Finally, an application to some European stock indexes provides evidence that our methodology is a powerful and flexible alternative to standard backtesting procedures in evaluating market risk by using information from a range of quantiles in the lower tail of returns.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington in its series Caepr Working Papers with number 2008-021.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:inu:caeprp:2008-021

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Christoph Rothe & Dominik Wied, 2013. "Misspecification Testing in a Class of Conditional Distributional Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 108(501), pages 314-324, March.
  2. Wenceslao González-Manteiga & Rosa Crujeiras, 2013. "An updated review of Goodness-of-Fit tests for regression models," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 361-411, September.
  3. Escanciano, J.C. & Goh, S.C., 2014. "Specification analysis of linear quantile models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P3), pages 495-507.
  4. Juan Carlos Escanciano & Chuan Goh, 2010. "Specification Analysis of Structural Quantile Regression Models," Working Papers tecipa-415, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  5. Antonio Galvao & Kengo Kato & Gabriel Montes-Rojas & Jose Olmo, 2014. "Testing linearity against threshold effects: uniform inference in quantile regression," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer, vol. 66(2), pages 413-439, April.
  6. Francesco Bravo, 2013. "Partially linear varying coefficient models with missing at random responses," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer, vol. 65(4), pages 721-762, August.
  7. Song Xi Chen & Jiti Gao, 2010. "Simultaneous Testing of Mean and Variance Structures in Nonlinear Time Series Models," School of Economics Working Papers 2010-28, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.

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