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Probabilistic Nowcasting of Low-Visibility Procedure States at Vienna International Airport During Cold Season

Author

Listed:
  • Philipp Kneringer
  • Sebastian J. Dietz
  • Georg J. Mayr
  • Achim Zeileis

Abstract

Airport operations are sensitive to visibility conditions. Low-visibility events may lead to capacity reduction, delays and economic losses. Different levels of low-visibility procedures (lvp) are enacted to ensure aviation safety. A nowcast of the probabilities for each of the lvp categories helps decision makers to optimally schedule their operations. An ordered logistic regression (OLR) model is used to forecast these probabilities directly. It is applied to cold season forecasts at Vienna International Airport for lead times of 30-min out to two hours. Model inputs are standard meteorological measurements. The skill of the forecasts is accessed by the ranked probability score. OLR outperforms persistence, which is a strong contender at the shortest lead times. The ranked probability score of the OLR is even better than the one of nowcasts from human forecasters. The OLR-based nowcasting system is computationally fast and can be updated instantaneously when new data become available.

Suggested Citation

  • Philipp Kneringer & Sebastian J. Dietz & Georg J. Mayr & Achim Zeileis, 2017. "Probabilistic Nowcasting of Low-Visibility Procedure States at Vienna International Airport During Cold Season," Working Papers 2017-21, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    • Handle: RePEc:inn:wpaper:2017-21
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rainer Winkelmann & Stefan Boes, 2006. "Analysis of Microdata," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-540-29607-2, November.
    2. Debashree Dutta & Sutapa Chaudhuri, 2015. "Nowcasting visibility during wintertime fog over the airport of a metropolis of India: decision tree algorithm and artificial neural network approach," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(2), pages 1349-1368, January.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    aviation meteorology; low visibility; probabilistic nowcasting; statistical forecasts; ordered logistic regression;
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