Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Extending Extended Logistic Regression for Ensemble Post-Processing: Extended vs. Separate vs. Ordered vs. Censored

Contents:

Author Info

  • Jakob W. Messner

    ()

  • Georg J. Mayr

    ()

  • Daniel S. Wilks

    ()

  • Achim Zeileis

    ()

Abstract

Extended logistic regression is a recent ensemble calibration method that extends logistic regression to provide full continuous probability distribution forecasts. It assumes conditional logistic distributions for the (transformed) predictand and fits these using selected predictand category probabilities. In this study we compare extended logistic regression to the closely related ordered and censored logistic regression models. Ordered logistic regression avoids the logistic distribution assumption but does not yield full probability distribution forecasts, whereas censored regression directly fits the full conditional predictive distributions. To compare the performance of these and other ensemble post-processing methods we used wind speed and precipitation data from two European locations and ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Ordered logistic regression performed similarly to extended logistic regression for probability forecasts of discrete categories whereas full predictive distributions were better predicted by censored regression.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://eeecon.uibk.ac.at/wopec2/repec/inn/wpaper/2013-32.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck in its series Working Papers with number 2013-32.

as in new window
Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:inn:wpaper:2013-32

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Universit├Ątsstra├če 15, A - 6020 Innsbruck
Phone: 0512/507-7151
Fax: 0512/507-2788
Email:
Web page: http://www.uibk.ac.at/fakultaeten/volkswirtschaft_und_statistik/index.html.en
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: probabilistic forecasting; extended logistic regression; ordered logistic regression; heteroscedasticity;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir & Tilmann Gneiting, 2010. "Probabilistic forecasts of wind speed: ensemble model output statistics by using heteroscedastic censored regression," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 173(2), pages 371-388.
  2. James E. Matheson & Robert L. Winkler, 1976. "Scoring Rules for Continuous Probability Distributions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(10), pages 1087-1096, June.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inn:wpaper:2013-32. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Janette Walde).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.