Why Does It Always Rain on Me? A Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Precipitation in Austria
AbstractIt is popular belief that the weather is "bad" more frequently on weekends than on other days of the week and this is often perceived to be associated with an increased chance of rain. In fact, the meteorological literature does report some evidence for such human-induced weekly cycles although these findings are not undisputed. To contribute to this discussion, a modern data-driven approach using structured additive regression models is applied to a newly available high-quality data set for Austria. The analysis investigates how an ordered response of rain intensities is influenced by a (potential) weekend effect while adjusting for spatio-temporal structure using spatially varying effects of overall level and seasonality patterns. The underlying data are taken from the HOMSTART project which provides daily precipitation quantities over a period of more than 60 years and a dense net of more than 50 meteorological stations all across Austria.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck in its series Working Papers with number 2011-25.
Date of creation: Nov 2011
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rainfall; generalized additive model; structured additive regression model; ordered probit model; HOMSTART; BayesX; R;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Longitudinal Data; Spatial Time Series
- Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters
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- Ruppert,David & Wand,M. P. & Carroll,R. J., 2003. "Semiparametric Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521780506, October.
- Nikolaus Umlauf & Daniel Adler & Thomas Kneib & Stefan Lang & Achim Zeileis, 2012. "Structured Additive Regression Models: An R Interface to BayesX," Working Papers 2012-10, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
- Achim Zeileis & Gabor Grothendieck, . "zoo: S3 Infrastructure for Regular and Irregular Time Series," Journal of Statistical Software, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(i06).
- Ruppert,David & Wand,M. P. & Carroll,R. J., 2003. "Semiparametric Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521785167, October.
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