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Deterrence, preemption and panic: A Common-enemy problem of terrorism

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Author Info

  • Satya P. Das

    ()
    (Indian Statistical Institute, New Delhi)

  • Prabal Roy Chowdhury

    ()
    (Indian Statistical Institute, New Delhi)

Abstract

We develop a game-theoretic analysis of terrorism that examines the interaction between a terrorist organization and multiple target countries, and considers both pre-emption and deterrence as counterterrorist policies. The damage from terror includes not only the material cost of fatality, injury and loss of property, but also the resultant fear. The fear-effect leads to different kinds of equilibria and implications for counter-terrorism policies. In particular, the model identifies conditions under which greater pre-emption may be the rational response to an increase in terrorism, i.e., it analyzes the merit of the dictum: "offense is the best defense." Further, it examines the characteristics of cooperative behavior among target countries in dealing with the threat of terrorism.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Indian Statistical Institute, New Delhi, India in its series Indian Statistical Institute, Planning Unit, New Delhi Discussion Papers with number 08-04.

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Length: 48 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ind:isipdp:08-04

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Keywords: Terrorism; Preemption; Panic; Deterrence; Cooperation; Target Countries;

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References

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  1. Todd Sandler & Kevin Siqueira, 2006. "Global terrorism: deterrence versus pre-emption," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1370-1387, November.
  2. Abadie, Alberto & Gardeazabal, Javier, 2008. "Terrorism and the world economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 1-27, January.
  3. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
  4. Mirza, Daniel & Verdier, Thierry, 2006. "International trade, security, and transnational terrorism : theory and empirics," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4093, The World Bank.
  5. Gary S. Becker & Yona Rubinstein, 2011. "Fear and the Response to Terrorism: An Economic Analysis," CEP Discussion Papers dp1079, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  6. Das Satya P & Lahiri Sajal, 2006. "A Strategic Analysis of Terrorist Activity and Counter-Terrorism Policies," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-28, June.
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Cited by:
  1. B. Hoyer, 2013. "Network Disruption and the Common Enemy Effect," Working Papers 12-06, Utrecht School of Economics.
  2. Prabal Roy Chowdhury & Jaideep Roy, 2011. "Aid in times of terror," Indian Statistical Institute, Planning Unit, New Delhi Discussion Papers 11-08, Indian Statistical Institute, New Delhi, India.

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