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Do futures markets help in price discovery and risk management for commodities in India?

Author

Listed:
  • Nidhi Aggarwal

    (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research)

  • Sargam Jain

    (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development ResearchInstitute of Economic Growth)

  • Susan Thomas

    (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research)

Abstract

In 2003, trading of commodity futures shifted from single commodity, regional exchanges to national exchanges that trade multiple commodities. This paper examines price discovery and hedging effectiveness of commodity futures after this change and concludes that,on average, futures prices do discover information relatively efficiently, but helps to manage risk less efficiently. The paper uses the viewpoint of the hedger to conjecture what factors may improve hedging effectiveness. These include high settlement costs caused by few and widely dispersed delivery centers and an unreliability of warehouse receipts,a mismatch between the grade specified in the futures contract and what is available for delivery in the market, and disruptions caused by various policy interventions in both commodities spot and futures markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Nidhi Aggarwal & Sargam Jain & Susan Thomas, 2014. "Do futures markets help in price discovery and risk management for commodities in India?," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2014-020, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    • Handle: RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2014-020
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    File URL: http://www.igidr.ac.in/pdf/publication/WP-2014-020.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert J. Myers & Stanley R. Thompson, 1989. "Generalized Optimal Hedge Ratio Estimation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(4), pages 858-868.
    2. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1995. "One Security, Many Markets: Determining the Contributions to Price Discovery," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1175-1199, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. A.N. Vijayakumar, 2023. "Declining trade interest in Indian commodity derivatives: a survey-based study on cardamom futures contract," Global Business and Economics Review, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 28(3), pages 333-346.
    2. Shashi Gupta & Himanshu Choudhary & D.R. Agarwal, 2017. "Hedging Efficiency of Indian Commodity Futures," Paradigm, , vol. 21(1), pages 1-20, June.
    3. Meenakshi Malhotra, 2015. "Evaluating the Hedging Performance of Oil and Oilseeds Futures in India," Paradigm, , vol. 19(2), pages 184-196, December.
    4. Raushan Kumar, 2017. "Price Discovery in Some Primary Commodity Markets in India," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(3), pages 1817-1829.
    5. Rahul Kumar Singh, 2023. "Efficiency of Wheat Futures across APMC Mandis," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 21(3), pages 681-701, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodities futures; price discovery; hedge ratio; variance reduction; cost of carry; settlement costs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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