Insecurities of the old and marginalized: Inflation, oil shocks, financial crisis and social security
AbstractThe paper examines the impact of recent inflation and financial shocks on the vulnerable, and explores policy design to reduce both future shocks and vulnerability to shocks. Inflation affects the typical savings cum pension portfolio and the specific consumption basket of the old, as prices of services rise compared to manufactured goods. Money illusion and habit, which tend to increase with age, aggravate the psychological trauma associated with inflation. The decline of traditional sources of social security marginalizes those without savings, in the context of sustained rural urban and international migration. Trends determining inflation-domestic and global, institutional change, and greater openness explain why inflation has been moderate in India, compared to other emerging markets. Since the polity is averse to high inflation, and commodity price shocks are moderating, high inflation will not persist. But the shocks demonstrate the importance of food price inflation for aggregate inflation in populous South Asia. Therefore improvements in agricultural productivity, with supportive buffer stock, fiscal and monetary policy are critical to lower the level of chronic inflation. Regulatory changes to reduce excessive risktaking in financial markets and the aggravation of inflation from speculation are examined. Finally, other policy measures to improve security for the old and keep them an active, vital part of the community are drawn together.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India in its series Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers with number 2009-003.
Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2009
Date of revision:
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More information through EDIRC
Aged; Inflation; Oil shocks; Financial crisis; Social security;
Other versions of this item:
- Ashima Goyal, 2009. "Insecurities of the old and marginalized : Inflation, Oil Shocks, Financial Crisis and Social Security," Finance Working Papers 22933, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- Ashima Goyal, 2009. "Insecurities of the Old and Marginalized: Inflation, Oil Shocks, Financial Crisis and Social Security," Working Papers id:1976, eSocialSciences.
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
- H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGE-2010-02-20 (Economics of Ageing)
- NEP-ALL-2010-02-20 (All new papers)
- NEP-MAC-2010-02-20 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hahn Robert & Passell Peter, 2008. "The Rush to Re-Regulate," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 5(3), pages 1-3, July.
- Gary Gorton, 2008.
"The Panic of 2007,"
Yale School of Management Working Papers
amz2372, Yale School of Management.
- Ashima Goyal, 2009. "Financial crises: reducing pro-cyclicality," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 173-183.
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