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Konjunktur und Rentenversicherung - gegenseitige Abhängigkeiten und mögliche Veränderungen durch diskretionäre Maßnahmen

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Author Info

  • Volker Meinhardt

    ()

  • Katja Rietzler

    ()

  • Rudolf Zwiener

    ()
    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK) at Hans Boeckler Foundation, Duesseldorf)

Abstract

The study provides an empirical analysis of the effects of cyclical fluctuations - including those of the current economic crisis - on revenues and expenditures of the German public pay-as-you-go pension system on the one hand. On the other hand the pension reforms of the most recent decade are scrutinised in terms of their repercussions on the business cycle. Special emphasis is placed on the gradual reduction of the public pension level and the subsidisation of private fully funded so-called "Riester" pension schemes. For the analysis the authors develop an econometric model of the public pension system and integrate it into the IMK's existing macro model of the German economy. The analysis shows several weaknesses of the current public pension formula. Firstly, it should not include the effects of short-time working on the aggregate of gross wages and salaries per employee. Otherwise the current extensive use of short-time working to avoid unemployment will first reduce pensions and then raise them again. Secondly, the time lag between cyclical changes and their repercussions on the expenditures of the pension system could be further increased to improve the stabilising effects of the pension system on the business cycle. And thirdly, the pension system's provisions for revenue fluctuations should be raised in order to avoid increasing contributions in a severe and protracted crisis. A separate section of the study deals with the cyclical effects of private households' increased savings for old age. To a significant extent the increase of the savings ratio since the beginning of this decade is due to the "Riester" reforms and has retarded growth and employment.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute in its series IMK Studies with number 03-2009.

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Length: 91 pages
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imk:studie:03-2009

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References

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  1. Volker Meinhardt, 1997. "Vereinigungsfolgen belasten Sozialversicherung," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 64(40), pages 725-729.
  2. Nikolaus Bartzsch, 2006. "Vorsichtssparen und Einkommensunsicherheit privater Haushalte in Deutschland: eine ökonometrische Untersuchung auf Basis von SOEP-Daten," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 75(4), pages 109-120.
  3. Werner Dirschmid & Ernst Glatzer, 2004. "Determinants of the Household Saving Rate in Austria," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 25–38.
  4. Coronado, Julie L. & Engen, Eric M. & Knight, Brian, 2003. "Public Funds and Private Capital Markets: The Investment Practices and Performance of State and Local Pension Funds," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 56(3), pages 579-94, September.
  5. Andrew A. Samwick, 2000. "Is Pension Reform Conducive to Higher Saving?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 264-272, May.
  6. Camille Logeay & Julia Schwenkenberg & Sabine Stephan & Christian Proano-Acosta & Serhiy Yahnych, 2005. "Modelling European Business Cycles (EBC Model): A Macroeconometric Model of France," Data Documentation 2, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  7. Florian Pelgrin & Alain de Serres, 2003. "The Decline in Private Saving Rates in the 1990s in OECD Countries: How Much Can Be Explained by Non-wealth Determinants?," OECD Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2003(1), pages 117-153.
  8. Volker Meinhardt & Rudolf Zwiener, 2005. "Gesamtwirtschaftliche Wirkungen einer Steuerfinanzierung versicherungsfremder Leistungen in der Sozialversicherung: Endbericht ; Forschungsprojekt im Auftrag des DGB Bundesvorstandes, der Hans-Böckle," DIW Berlin: Politikberatung kompakt, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, volume 7, number pbk7, March.
  9. Robert Holzmann, 1997. "Fiscal Alternatives of Moving from Unfunded to Funded Pensions," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 126, OECD Publishing.
  10. Tim Callen & Christian Thimann, 1997. "Empirical Determinants of Household Saving," IMF Working Papers 97/181, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Sergio Cesaratto, 2006. "Transition to fully funded pension schemes: a non-orthodox criticism," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 30(1), pages 33-48, January.
  12. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 1995. "Pension reform and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1471, The World Bank.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Gustav A. Horn & Heike Joebges & Rudolf Zwiener, 2009. "Von der Finanzkrise zur Weltwirtschaftskrise (II)," IMK Report 40-2009, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  2. Katja Rietzler, 2012. "The IMK’s Model of the German Economy," IMK Studies 29-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  3. Alexander Herzog-Stein & Fabian Lindner & Rudolf Zwiener, 2013. "Nur das Angebot zählt?," IMK Report 87-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  4. Camille Logeay & Volker Meinhardt & Katja Rietzler & Rudolf Zwiener, 2009. "Gesamtwirtschaftliche Folgen des kapitalgedeckten Rentensystems," IMK Report 43-2009, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  5. Heike Joebges & Volker Meinhard & Katja Rietzler & Rudolf Zwiener, 2012. "On the Path to Old-Age Poverty - Assessing the Impact of the Funded Riester Pension," IMK Report 73e-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  6. Achim Truger, 2013. "Steuerpolitik im Dienste der Umverteilung: eine makroökonomische Ergänzung," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 82(1), pages 43-59.
  7. Alexander Herzog-Stein & Fabian Lindner & Rudolf Zwiener, 2013. "Is the supply side all that counts?," IMK Report 87e-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  8. Alexander Herzog-Stein & Fabian Lindner & Simon Sturn & Till van Treeck, 2010. "Vom Krisenherd zum Wunderwerk?," IMK Report 56-2010, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  9. Heike Joebges & Volker Meinhard & Katja Rietzler & Rudolf Zwiener, 2012. "Auf dem Weg in die Altersarmut - Bilanz der Einführung der kapitalgedeckten Riester-Rente," IMK Report 73-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.

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