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Im Sog der Krise

Author

Listed:
  • Gustav A. Horn

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Peter Hohlfeld

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Fabian Lindner
  • Katja Rietzler

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Sabine Stephan

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Silke Tober

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Andrew Watt

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

Abstract

Die konjunkturelle Dynamik der Weltwirtschaft hat sich zur Jahresmitte 2012 deutlich verlangsamt. Im Euroraum setzte sich die Rezession fort. Für die Überwindung der Krise im Euroraum wurden in den vergangenen Monaten seitens der Europäischen Zentralbank und den Regierungen wichtige Schritte unternommen. Infolge dessen dürfte sich die Eurokrise etwas entschärfen. Dennoch erwartet das IMK für den Euroraum aufgrund der andauernden Austeritätspolitik im Jahresdurchschnitt 2012 einen Rückgang des Bruttoinlandsprodukts von 0,5 % und für 2013 von 0,7 %. Die Krise des Euroraums wirkt sich nunmehr verstärkt auf die deutsche Wirtschaft aus. Seit den Sommermonaten trüben sich die Aussichten deutlich ein. Für den Prognosezeitraum ist mit einer insgesamt stagnativen Entwicklung zu rechnen. Im Jahresdurchschnitt 2012 beträgt die Zunahme des Bruttoinlandsprodukts 0,6 % und im Jahr 2013 0,4 %. Die Arbeitslosigkeit wird im Verlauf des Prognosezeitraums zunehmen; im Jahresdurchschnitt steigt die Arbeitslosenquote von 6,8 % in diesem Jahr auf 7,0 % im nächsten Jahr. Der Anstieg der Verbraucherpreise beträgt in diesem Jahr 1,9 % und im Jahr 2013 1,4 %.

Suggested Citation

  • Gustav A. Horn & Peter Hohlfeld & Fabian Lindner & Katja Rietzler & Sabine Stephan & Silke Tober & Andrew Watt, 2012. "Im Sog der Krise," IMK Report 74-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:imk:report:74-2012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alexander Herzog-Stein & Fabian Lindner & Simon Sturn & Till van Treeck, 2010. "Vom Krisenherd zum Wunderwerk?," IMK Report 56-2010, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    2. Buti,Marco & Deroose,Servaas & Gaspar,Vitor & Martins,João Nogueira (ed.), 2010. "The Euro," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9789279098420.
    3. Fabio R Arico & Ulrike Stein, 2012. "Was Short-Time Work a Miracle Cure During the Great Recession? The Case of Germany and Italy," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 54(2), pages 275-297, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Katja Rietzler & Dieter Teichmann & Achim Truger, 2012. "IMK-Steuerschätzung 2012-2016," IMK Report 76-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.

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