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Is Poland Ready for Inflation Targeting?

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  • Peter F. Christoffersen
  • Robert F. Westcott

Abstract

Monetary policymakers in advanced transition economies such as Poland are increasingly interested in how inflation responds to changes in policy instruments and other economic forces. In this paper, measures of underlying CPI inflation based upon optimal trimming concepts are developed. The sensitivity of these CPI measures to changes in a set of 25 policy and economic variables is then studied via Granger causality tests and impulse responses and a multivariate model of CPI inflation developed. The results show that a core set of variables characterize one-period-ahead underlying inflation moderately well but that statistical linkages are not yet robust.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 99/41.

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Length: 31
Date of creation: 01 Mar 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:99/41

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Cited by:
  1. Buiter, Willem H & Grafe, Clemens, 2002. "Anchor, Float or Abandon Ship: Exchange Rate Regimes for Accession Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 3184, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Lyziak, Tomasz & Mackiewicz, Joanna & Stanislawska, Ewa, 2007. "Central bank transparency and credibility: The case of Poland, 1998-2004," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 67-87, March.
  3. Lucjan T Orlowski, 2005. "Monetary Policy Adjustments on the Final Passage towards the Euro," Macroeconomics, EconWPA 0503022, EconWPA.
  4. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2004. "Money rules for the eurozone candidate countries," ZEI Working Papers B 05-2004, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  5. Lucjan T Orlowski, 2005. "A Dynamic Approach to Inflation Targeting in Transition Economies," Macroeconomics, EconWPA 0501038, EconWPA.
  6. Jean-Patrick Yanitch & Virginie Coudert, 2001. "The Exchange Rate Strategies Adopted by the EU Accession Countries of Central and Eastern Europe," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, Programme National Persée, vol. 6(1), pages 345-360.
  7. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2004. "The Information Content of the Natural Rate of Interest: The Case of Poland," Macroeconomics, EconWPA 0402007, EconWPA.
  8. Siklos, Pierre L. & Abel, Istvan, 2002. "Is Hungary ready for inflation targeting?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 309-333, December.
  9. Anca Tanasie & Cosmin Fratostiteanu, 2008. "Forecasting inflation and its determinants," Revista Tinerilor Economisti (The Young Economists Journal), University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(10), pages 110-116, April.
  10. Koskinen, Juha-Pekka & Koivu, Tuuli & Chowdhury, Abdur, 2004. "Selecting inflation indicators under an inflation targeting regime: evidence from the MCL method," BOFIT Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition 16/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  11. Lucio Vinhas de Souza, 2002. "Integrated monetary and exchange rate frameworks: are there empirical differences?," Bank of Estonia Working Papers, Bank of Estonia 2002-2, Bank of Estonia, revised 12 Oct 2002.
  12. Jean-Patrick Yanitch & Virginie Coudert, 2001. "Les stratégies de change des pays d'Europe Centrale et Orientale candidats à l'Union européenne," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, Programme National Persée, vol. 6(1), pages 381-397.
  13. Pelin Berkmen, 2002. "Measuring Core Inflation for Turkey - Trimmed Means Approach," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 2(2), pages 1-18.
  14. Bank for International Settlements, 2008. "Financial globalisation and emerging market capital flows," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, Bank for International Settlements, number 44, 8.
  15. Peter Backé & Jarko Fidrmuc & Thomas Reininger & Franz Schardax, 2002. "Price Dynamics in Central and Eastern European EU Accession," Working Papers, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank) 61, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  16. L�cio Vinhas de Souza, 2002. "Integrated Monetary and Exchange Rate Frameworks," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-054/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  17. Jerzy Pruski & Piotr Szpunar, 2008. "Capital flows and their implications for monetary and financial stability: the experience of Poland," BIS Papers chapters, Bank for International Settlements, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Financial globalisation and emerging market capital flows, volume 44, pages 403-421 Bank for International Settlements.
  18. repec:dgr:uvatin:2000085 is not listed on IDEAS

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