The Myth of Comoving Commodity Prices
AbstractThere is a common perception that the prices of unrelated commodities move together. This paper re-examines this notion, using a measure of comovement of economic time series called concordance. Concordance measures the proportion of time that the prices of two commodities are concurrently in the same boom period or same slump period. Using data on the prices of several unrelated commodities, the paper finds no evidence of comovement in commodity prices. The results carry an important policy implication, as the study provides no support for earlier claims of irrational trading behavior by participants in world commodity markets.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 99/169.
Date of creation: 01 Dec 1999
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Other versions of this item:
- Paul Cashin & C John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 1999. "The myth of co-moving commodity prices," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/9, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
- O13 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
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