Macroeconomic and Sectoral Effects of Terms-Of-Trade Shocks
AbstractThis paper investigates the impact of long-run terms-of-trade shocks. Analytically, we show that, if capital goods are largely importable or the labor supply is sufficiently elastic, then natural-resource booms increase aggregate investment and worsen the current account, but Dutch ‘Disease’ effects are weak. We then examine 18 oil-exporting developing countries during 1965-89. Favorable terms-of-trade shocks increase investment and (especially government) consumption, but reduce medium-term savings; hence, the current account deteriorates. Nontradable output increases, in response to real appreciations, but Dutch Disease effects are strikingly absent. Investment, consumption, and nontradable output respond more to a terms-of-trade decline than to an increase.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 99/134.
Date of creation: 01 Oct 1999
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-02-16 (All new papers)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Abdur R Chowdhury, 2004.
"Private Savings in Transition Economies: Are there Terms of Trade Shocks?,"
Comparative Economic Studies,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(4), pages 487-514, December.
- Abdur R. Chowdhury, 2003. "Private Savings In Transition Economies: Are There Terms Of Trade Shocks?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2003-572, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Arezki, Rabah & Ismail, Kareem, 2013.
"Boom–bust cycle, asymmetrical fiscal response and the Dutch disease,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 256-267.
- Kareem Ismail & Rabah Arezki, 2010. "Boom-Bust Cycle, Asymmetrical Fiscal Response and the Dutch Disease," IMF Working Papers 10/94, International Monetary Fund.
- Arezki, Rabah & Alichi, Ali, 2009.
"An Alternative Explanation for the Resource Curse: The Income Effect Channel,"
17130, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ali Alichi & Rabah Arezki, 2012. "An alternative explanation for the resource curse: the income effect channel," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(22), pages 2881-2894, August.
- Ali Alichi & Rabah Arezki, 2009. "An Alternative Explanation for the Resource Curse: The Income Effect Channel," IMF Working Papers 09/112, International Monetary Fund.
- Chowdhury, Abdur R., 2003. "Do asymmetric terms of trade shocks affect private savings in a transition economy?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 3/2003, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Paul Cashin & Christopher J. Kent, 2003. "The Response of the Current Account to Terms of Trade Shocks: Persistence Matters," IMF Working Papers 03/143, International Monetary Fund.
- Elbadawi, Ibrahim A. & Kaltani, Linda & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 2007. "Post-conflict aid, real exchange rate adjustment, and catch-up growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4187, The World Bank.
- Abdur R. Chowdhury, 2003. "Do asymmetric terms of trade shocks affect private savings in a transition economy?," Macroeconomics 0303006, EconWPA.
- Roberto Álvarez E. & J. Rodrigo Fuentes S., 2006. "El “Síndrome Holandés”: Teoría y Revisión de la Experiencia Internacional," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 9(3), pages 97-108, December.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.