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Technology and Epidemics

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  • Alberto Chong
  • L. Zanforlin

Abstract

Evidence from historical and epidemiological literatures show that epidemics tend to spread in the population according to a logistic pattern. We conjecture that the impact of new technologies on output follows a pattern of spread not unlike that of typical epidemics. After reaching a critical mass, rates of growth will accelerate until the marginal benefits of technology are fully utilized. We estimate spline functions using a GMM dynamic panel methodology for 79 countries. We use imports of machinery and equipment as a fraction of gross domestic product as a proxy for the process of technological adoption. Results confirm our hypothesis.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 99/125.

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Length: 33
Date of creation: 01 Sep 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:99/125

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Cited by:
  1. César Calderón & Alberto Chong & Luisa Zanforlin, 2001. "On Non-Linearities Between Exports Of Manufactures And Economic Growth," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 279-311, November.
  2. Ozan Hatipoglu, 2007. "An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship Between Inequality and Innovation in a Schumpeterian Framework," Working Papers 2007/10, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
  3. Chong, Alberto & Micco, Alejandro, 2003. "The Internet and the ability to innovate in Latin America," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 53-72, March.
  4. Alberto Chong & Alejandro Micco, 2002. "Internet y la capacidad de innovar en América Latina," Research Department Publications 4292, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  5. Rioja, Felix & Valev, Neven, 2004. "Does one size fit all?: a reexamination of the finance and growth relationship," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 429-447, August.
  6. Felix Rioja & Neven Valev, 2002. "Financial Development and Growth: A Positive, Monotonic Relationship?," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0207, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.

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