Technology and Epidemics
AbstractEvidence from historical and epidemiological literatures show that epidemics tend to spread in the population according to a logistic pattern. We conjecture that the impact of new technologies on output follows a pattern of spread not unlike that of typical epidemics. After reaching a critical mass, rates of growth will accelerate until the marginal benefits of technology are fully utilized. We estimate spline functions using a GMM dynamic panel methodology for 79 countries. We use imports of machinery and equipment as a fraction of gross domestic product as a proxy for the process of technological adoption. Results confirm our hypothesis.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 99/125.
Date of creation: 01 Sep 1999
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Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
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Other versions of this item:
- O39 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change; Research and Development; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Other
- O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
- O1 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
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