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Abstract

Following the liberalization reforms of the late 80s and early 90s, several emerging market economies have experienced large and persistent trade deficits. This paper focuses on the Argentine experience, examining the extent to which trade imbalances in the 1990s resulted from income and relative price movements, as well as from shifts in foreign trade elasticities associated with structural changes. New estimates of export and import equations are presented using a broader set of variables than previous studies and distinguishing between intra and extra MERCOSUR trade. We find that considerable export sensitivity to world commodity prices, domestic absorption, and economic activity in Brazil, combined with a high income elasticity of imports, are key determinants of Argentina’s trade balance.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 99/121.

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Length: 54
Date of creation: 01 Sep 1999
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:99/121

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Find related papers by JEL classification:

• F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
• F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
• F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

References

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1. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, 1998. "Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Trade Flows - Evidence from the European Union," IMF Working Papers 98/107, International Monetary Fund.
   
   • Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, 1999. "Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Trade Flows: Evidence from the European Union," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(3), pages 5.
2. Clarida, R.H., 1992. "Cointegration, Aggregate Consumption and the Demand for Imports: A Struct ural Econometric Investigation," Discussion Papers 1992_29, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
   
   • Clarida, Richard H, 1994. "Cointegration, Aggregate Consumption, and the Demand for Imports: A Structural Econometric Investigation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 298-308, March.
   • Richard H. Clarida, 1992. "Cointegration, aggregate consumption, and the demand for imports: a structural econometric investigation," Research Paper 9213, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
   • Richard H. Clarida, 1991. "Co-Integration, Aggregate Consumption, and the Demand For Imports: A Structural Econometric Investigation," NBER Working Papers 3812, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
3. Pritchett, Lant & Sethi, Geeta, 1994. "Tariff Rates, Tariff Revenue, and Tariff Reform: Some New Facts," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 8(1), pages 1-16, January.
   
   • Pritchett, Lant & Sethi, Geeta, 1993. "Tariff rates, tariff revenue, and tariff reform : some new facts," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1143, The World Bank.
4. Ceglowski, Janet, 1991. "Intertemporal substitution in import demand," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 118-130, March.
5. Lopez Murphy, Ricardo & Navajas, Fernando, 1998. "Domestic savings, public savings and expenditures on consumer durable goods in Argentina," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 97-116, October.
6. Edwards, Sebastian, 1996. "Why are Latin America's savings rates so low? An international comparative analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 5-44, October.
7. Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Lorenzo Giorgianni, 1997. "Determinants of Korean Trade Flows and their Geographical Destination," IMF Working Papers 97/54, International Monetary Fund.
   
   • Giorgianni, Lorenzo & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 1997. "Determinants of Korean Trade Flows and their Geographical Destination," CEPR Discussion Papers 1703, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
8. Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S., 1985. "Income and price effects in foreign trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1041-1105 Elsevier.
9. Gonzaga, Gustavo M. & Terra, Maria Cristina T., 1997. "Equilibrium real exchange rate, volatility, and stabilization," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 77-100, October.
10. Agathe Cote, . "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade: A Survey," Working Papers 94-5, Bank of Canada.
11. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
12. Reinhart, Carmen, 1994. "Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade," MPRA Paper 13708, University Library of Munich, Germany.
13. Houthakker, Hendrik S & Magee, Stephen P, 1969. "Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(2), pages 111-25, May.

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Cited by:

1. Christine Mutz & Thomas Ziesemer, 2008. "Simultaneous estimation of income and price elasticities of export demand, scale economies and total factor productivity growth for Brazil," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 40(22), pages 2921-2937.
   
   • Mutz,Christine & Ziesemer,Thomas, 2005. "Simultaneous Estimation of Income and Price Elasticities of Export Demand, Scale Economies and Total Factor Productivity Growth for Brazil," Research Memoranda 004, Maastricht : MERIT, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology.
2. Athanasoglou, Panayiotis P. & Bardaka, Ioanna C., 2010. "New trade theory, non-price competitiveness and export performance," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 217-228, January.
   
   • Athanasoglou, Panayiotis & Bardaka, Ioanna, 2010. "New trade theory, non-price competitiveness and export performance," MPRA Paper 32047, University Library of Munich, Germany.
3. A Duarte & J L Nicolini-Llosa & Ivan Paya, 2007. "Estimating Argentina''s imports elasticities," Working Papers 583372, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
4. Sophie Chauvin, 2001. "Exit Options for Argentina with a Special Focus on Their Impact on External Trade," Working Papers 2001-07, CEPII research center.
5. Diego Nicolás Moccero, 2001. "Esquemas Cambiarios y Monetarios Alternativos en un Modelo de Interdependencia Macroeconómica entre Argentina y Brasil," Department of Economics, Working Papers 031, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
6. Panayiotis P. Athanasoglou & Ioanna C. Bardaka, 2008. "Price and Non - Price Competitiveness of Exports of Manufactures," Working Papers 69, Bank of Greece.

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