Leading Indicators of Banking Crises
AbstractThis paper examines episodes of the banking system distress and crisis in a large sample of countries. The empirical results identify several macroeconomic and financial variables as useful leading indicators. The main macroeconomic indicators were of limited value in predicting the Asian crises; the best warning signs were proxies for the vulnerability of the banking and corporate sector. Full-blown banking crises are shown to be more associated with external developments, and domestic variables are the main leading indicators of severe but contained banking distress.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 98/91.
Date of creation: 01 Jun 1998
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Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
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