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Current Account Reversals and Currency Crisis

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  • Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti
  • Assaf Razin

Abstract

This paper studies large reductions in current account deficits and exchange rate depreciations in low- and middle-income countries. It examines which factors help predict the occurrence of a reversal or a currency crisis, and how these events affect macroeconomic performance. Both domestic factors, such as the low reserves, and external factors, such as unfavorable terms of trade, are found to trigger reversals and currency crises. The two types of events are, however, distinct; an exchange rate crash is associated with a fall in output growth and a recovery thereafter, while for reversals there is no systematic evidence of a growth slowdown.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 98/89.

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Length: 44
Date of creation: 01 Jun 1998
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:98/89

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Cited by:
  1. Moura, Guilherme V. & Richard, Jean-François & Liesenfeld, Roman, 2007. "Dynamic Panel Probit Models for Current Account Reversals and their Efficient Estimation," Economics Working Papers 2007,11, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
  2. Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Razvan, 2014. "Perspective ale ţintirii inflaţiei
    [Perspectives of the Inflation Targeting]
    ," MPRA Paper 52943, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Jan 2014.
  3. Calderon, Cesar & Chong, Alberto & Loayza, Norman, 2000. "Determinants of current account deficits in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2398, The World Bank.
  4. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Jarko Fidrmuc & Maria Silgoner, 2008. "Fundamentals, the exchange rate and prospects for the current and future EU enlargements: evidence from Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania and Turkey," Empirica, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 195-211, April.
  5. Jarko Fidrmuc, 2003. "The Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle and Twin Deficits in Selected Countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 135-152, June.
  6. Dumitru, Ionut & Dumitru, Ionela, 2009. "An Assessment of the Current Account Sustainability in Romania – An Inter-temporal Perspective," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 6(2), pages 23-41, June.
  7. Stephan Barisitz, 2004. "Exchange Rate Arrangements and Monetary Policy in Southeastern Europe and Turkey: Some Stylized Facts," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2.
  8. Claudio Soto G. & Alberto Naudon D. & Eduardo López E. & Álvaro Aguirre R., 2004. "About International Reserve Adequacy: The Case of Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 7(3), pages 5-34, December.
  9. Calderon, Cesar & Kubota, Megumi, 2009. "Does higher openness cause more real exchange rate volatility ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4896, The World Bank.
  10. Patrick A. Imam, 2008. "Rapid Current Account Adjustments," IMF Working Papers 08/233, International Monetary Fund.

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