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Estimating Egypt's Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate

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  • Joannes Mongardini

Abstract

In light of the real appreciation of the Egyptian pound over the last six years and Egypt’s lackluster export growth, questions of external competitiveness and exchange rate policy have arisen. This paper sheds light on these issues by estimating empirically Egypt’s equilibrium real exchange rate, that is, the rate that is consistent with fundamentals. The results show that, while the real exchange rate was substantially overvalued before 1993, today it is only moderately above the equilibrium rate. Moreover, the analysis shows that the recent appreciation of the pound does not indicate a worsening misalignment.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 98/5.

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Length: 41
Date of creation: 01 Jan 1998
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:98/5

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Cited by:
  1. Jaime Silva González, 2009. "Estimación de la tasa de cambio real de equilibrio: aplicación a Colombia," REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL CARIBE, UNIVERSIDAD DEL NORTE.
  2. Léonce Ndikumana, 2003. "Capital Flows, Capital Account Regimes, and Foreign Exchange Rate Regimes in Africa," Working Papers wp55, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
  3. Cheng, Fuzhi & Orden, David, 2005. "Exchange rate misalignment and its effects on agricultural producer support estimates," MTID discussion papers 81, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  4. Lone Engbo Christiansen & Alessandro Prati & Luca Antonio Ricci & Thierry Tressel, 2009. "External Balance in Low Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 09/221, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Kateřina Šmídková & Aleš Bulíř, 2004. "Would Fast Sailing towards the Euro Be Smooth? What Fundamental Real Exchange Rates Tells Us about Acceding Economies," Working Papers IES 64, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised 2004.
  6. Joannes Mongardini & Alexander Chudik, 2007. "In Search of Equilibrium," IMF Working Papers 07/90, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Bussière, Matthieu & Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Chudik, Alexander & Dieppe, Alistair, 2010. "Methodological advances in the assessment of equilibrium exchange rates," Working Paper Series 1151, European Central Bank.
  8. Johan Mathisen, 2003. "Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for Malawi," IMF Working Papers 03/104, International Monetary Fund.
  9. International Monetary Fund, 2003. "The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in a Commodity Exporting Country," IMF Working Papers 03/93, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Babacar XSENE, 2005. "Impact du fardeau virtuel de la dette sur le taux de change réel d'équilibre des pays en développement," Macroeconomics 0501014, EconWPA.
  11. Kateřina Šmídková & Aleš Bulíř, 2005. "Would Fast Sailing Towards the Euro Be Smooth? What Fundamental Real Exchange Rates Tell Us," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2005(4), pages 291-316.
  12. Aykut Kibritcioglu & Bengi Kibritcioglu, 2004. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Turkey, 1987-2003 (in Turkish)," Macroeconomics 0403006, EconWPA, revised 09 Mar 2004.
  13. Cheng, Fuzhi & Orden, David, 2005. "Exchange Rate Misalignment and Its Effects on Agricultural Producer Support Estimates: Empirical Evidence from India and China," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19121, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  14. Sossounov, Kirill & Ushakov, Nikolay, 2009. "Determination of the real exchange rate of rouble and assessment of long-rum policy of real exchange rate targeting," MPRA Paper 18549, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Todd Schneider & Nabil Ben Ltaifa & Faisal Ahmed & Saade Chami, 2007. "Yemen," IMF Working Papers 07/5, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Balázs Égert, 2002. "Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates in Central Europe's Transition Economies: Knocking on Heaven's Door," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 480, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  17. Maged Shawky Sourial, 2002. "The Future of the Stock Market Channel In Egypt," Finance 0204002, EconWPA.
  18. Zaki, Mokhlis Y., 2001. "IMF-Supported Stabilization Programs and their Critics: Evidence from the Recent Experience of Egypt," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1867-1883, November.
  19. Sosunov, K. & Ushakov, N., 2009. "Determination of the Real Exchange Rate of the Ruble and Assessment of Long-Run Policy of Real Exchange Rate Targeting," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, issue 3-4, pages 97-121.
  20. n.a.m, Naseem & m.s, Hamizah, 2013. "Exchange Rate Misalignment and Economic Growth: Recent Evidence in Malaysia," MPRA Paper 52447, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  21. Lendjoungou, Francis, 2009. "Competitiveness and the real exchange rate: the standpoint of countries in the CEMAC zone," MPRA Paper 17053, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  22. Hassan Suleiman & Zahid Muhammad, 2011. "The real exchange rate of an oil exporting economy: Empirical evidence from Nigeria," FIW Working Paper series 072, FIW.

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