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The Relative Importance of Political and Economic Variables in Creditworthiness Ratings

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  • International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This study examines the relative importance of political and economic variables in the determination of a country’s standing in credit ratings provided by commercial rating agencies. It finds that creditworthiness appears to be determined primarily by economic variables. While including political events can improve the explanatory power of the regressions, the exclusion of political variables does not bias the parameter estimates for the effects of economic variables.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 98/46.

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Length: 13
Date of creation: 01 Apr 1998
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:98/46

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Cited by:
  1. Philipp Harms & Michael Rauber, 2004. "Foreign aid and developing countries' creditworthiness," Working Papers 04.05, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  2. Rosemarie Bröker Bone, 2005. "A Importância Dos Fundamentos Nos Ratings Soberanos Brasileiros, 1994-2002," Anais do XXXIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 33th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 037, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  3. Christian B. Mulder & Matthieu Bussière, 1999. "Political Instability and Economic Vulnerability," IMF Working Papers 99/46, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Paul Louis Ceriel Hilbers & Alfredo Mario Leone & Mahinder Singh Gill & Owen Evens, 2000. "Macroprudential Indicators of Financial System Soundness," IMF Occasional Papers 192, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Manasse, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 2009. ""Rules of thumb" for sovereign debt crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 192-205, July.
  6. Martín Grandes, 2007. "The Determinants of Sovereign Bond Spreads: Theory and Facts From Latin America," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 44(130), pages 151-181.
  7. World Bank, 2002. "The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia : Developing Exports to Promote Growth," World Bank Other Operational Studies 15422, The World Bank.
  8. Julio Nogués & Martín Grandes, 2001. "COUNTRY RISK: Economic Policy, Contagion Effect or Political noise?," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 125-162, May.
  9. Axel Schimmelpfennig & Nouriel Roubini & Paolo Manasse, 2003. "Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises," IMF Working Papers 03/221, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Weller, Christian E., 1999. "Financial crises after financial liberalization: Exceptional circumstances or structural weakness?," ZEI Working Papers B 15-1999, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  11. Pukthuanthong-Le, Kuntara & Elayan, Fayez A. & Rose, Lawrence C., 2007. "Equity and debt market responses to sovereign credit ratings announcement," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-83.
  12. Andres Vesilind & Ingrid Toming & Raoul Lättemäe, 2001. "Determinants of Estonian Sovereign Credit Rating," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2001-03, Bank of Estonia, revised 12 Oct 2001.
  13. Kalotychou, Elena & Staikouras, Sotiris K., 2006. "An empirical investigation of the loan concentration risk in Latin America," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 363-384, October.
  14. António Afonso, 2002. "Understanding the Determinants of Government Debt Ratings: Evidence for the Two Leading Agencies," Working Papers Department of Economics 2002/02, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.

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