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An Econometric Analysis of Countries' Repayment Performance to the International Monetary Fund

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  • Lynn Aylward
  • Rupert Thorne
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    Abstract

    While the literature on external debt repayment performance by sovereign debtors is extensive, repayment performance vis-�-vis the International Monetary Fund has not been dealt with separately. Given differences between the Fund and other providers of financial resources, this paper considers whether it is possible to distinguish through logit analysis between the countries that make timely repayments to the Fund and those that become overdue. The paper finds that the inclusion of Fund-specific financial variables and a small number of macroeconomic variables yields a highly significant econometric model of the probability of a country incurring Fund arrears.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 98/32.

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    Length: 47
    Date of creation: 01 Mar 1998
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:98/32

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    Cited by:
    1. Aart Kraay & Vikram Nehru, 2006. "When Is External Debt Sustainable?," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, World Bank Group, vol. 20(3), pages 341-365.
    2. Chikako Oka, 2003. "Anticipating Arrears to the IMF Early Warning Systems," IMF Working Papers 03/18, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Hayo, Bernd & Kutan, Ali M., 2005. "IMF-related news and emerging financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1126-1142, November.
    4. Olivier Jeanne & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2001. "International Bailouts, Moral Hazard, and Conditionality," CESifo Working Paper Series 563, CESifo Group Munich.
    5. De Paoli, Bianca & Hoggarth, Glenn & Saporta, Victoria, 2009. "Output costs of sovereign crises: some empirical estimates," Bank of England working papers, Bank of England 362, Bank of England.
    6. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2007. "The Military Expenditure-External Debt Nexus: New Evidence From A Panel Of Middle Eastern Countries," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series, Monash University, Department of Economics 17-07, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    7. Priyadarshani Joshi & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2005. "Implicit Transfers in IMF Lending, 1973-2003," IMF Working Papers 05/8, International Monetary Fund.

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