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Explaining the Recent Behavior of Inflation and Unemployment in the United States

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  • Vincent Hogan

Abstract

Low rates of inflation have been recorded in recent years, despite a decline in the unemployment rate. This phenomenon could be the result of a series of transitory shocks or of a permanent change in the structure of the economy leading to a lower NAIRU. The paper suggests that, while the NAIRU may have fallen slightly, it has not fallen by an amount sufficient to explain the recent behavior of inflation. A leading explanation for recent inflation performance appears to be favorable price shocks; in particular, the cost of imports has fallen sharply as the dollar has appreciated.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 98/145.

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Length: 17
Date of creation: 01 Sep 1998
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:98/145

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Cited by:
  1. Masso, Jaan & Staehr, Karsten, 2005. "Inflation dynamics and nominal adjustment in the Baltic States," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 281-303, June.
  2. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2781 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Islam, Faridul & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Shabbir, Muhammad, 2011. "Phillips curve in a small open economy: A time series exploration of North Cyprus," MPRA Paper 28397, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Claire Sensoli & Francisco Serranito & Thierry Latreille & Olivier Passet & Odile Chagny & Hélène Baudchon & Catherine Mathieu & Christine Rifflart & Hervé Péléraux & Henri Sterdyniak & Paola Ver, 2000. "Tous ensemble ? Perspectives 2000-2001 pour l'économie mondiale," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/2781, Sciences Po.
  5. Steven B. Kamin & Mario Marazzi & John W. Schindler, 2004. "Is China "exporting deflation"?," International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 791, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Chen, Pu & Chihying, Hsiao, 2007. "Learning Causal Relations in Multivariate Time Series Data," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 1(11), pages 1-43.
  7. Fumitaka Furuoka & Chong Mun Ho, 2009. "Phillips curves and openness: New evidence from selected Asian economies," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(1), pages 253-264.
  8. Fumitaka Furuoka, 2007. "Does the “Phillips Curve” Really Exist? New Empirical Evidence from Malaysia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(16), pages 1-14.
  9. Jonsson, Magnus & Palmqvist, Stefan, 2004. "Do Higher Wages Cause Inflation?," Working Paper Series 159, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  10. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2007:i:16:p:1-14 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Fumitaka Furuoka & Qaiser Munir & Hanafiah Harvey, 2013. "Does the Phillips curve exist in the Philippines?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 2001-2016.
  12. Gregory D. Hess & Mark E. Schweitzer, 2000. "Does wage inflation cause price inflation?," Policy Discussion Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Apr.

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