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Does the Introduction of Futureson Emerging Market Currencies Destabilize the Underlying Currencies?

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  • Christian Jochum
  • Laura E. Kodres
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    Abstract

    Recent interest in futures contracts on emerging market currencies has raised concerns among some central bank authorities about their ability to maintain stable currencies. This paper presents empirical results examining the influence of the Mexican peso, the Brazilian real, and the Hungarian forint futures contracts on the respective spot markets. While measures of linear dependence and feedback indicate strong connections between the respective markets, futures volatility does not significantly explain spot market volatility, nor does it increase after futures introductions. To account for the characteristics of the spot and futures returns a SWARCH model has been employed to estimate volatility.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 98/13.

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    Length: 39
    Date of creation: 01 Feb 1998
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:98/13

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    Cited by:
    1. Röthig, Andreas, 2004. "Currency futures and currency crises," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 4022, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute of Economics (VWL).
    2. Antoniou, Antonios & Koutmos, Gregory & Pericli, Andreas, 2005. "Index futures and positive feedback trading: evidence from major stock exchanges," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 219-238, March.
    3. Calvet, Laurent & Gonzalez-Eiras, Martin & Sodini, Paolo, 2001. "Financial Innovation, Market Participation and Asset Prices," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 464, Stockholm School of Economics.
    4. TREMBLAY, Rodrigue, 1999. "Les facteurs declencheurs des crises financieres internationales," Cahiers de recherche 9907, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    5. Lourdes Treviño, 2005. "Development and volume growth of organized derivatives trade in emerging markets," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(2), pages 31-82, November.

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