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Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Trade Flows

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  • Giovanni Dell'Ariccia

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects of exchange rate volatility on bilateral trade flows. Through use of a gravity model and panel data from western Europe, exchange rate uncertainty is found to have a negative effect on international trade. The results seem to be robust with respect to the particular measures representing exchange rate uncertainty. Particular attention is reserved for problems of simultaneous causality. The negative correlation between trade and bilateral volatility remains significant after controlling for the simultaneity bias. However, a Hausman test rejects the hypothesis of the absence of simultaneous causality.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 98/107.

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Length: 27
Date of creation: 01 Aug 1998
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:98/107

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Cited by:
  1. Richard E. Baldwin & Virginia Di Nino, 2006. "Euros and Zeros: The Common Currency Effect on Trade in New Goods," NBER Working Papers 12673, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Sarah Guillou, 2008. "Exports and exchange rate : a firm-level investigation," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2008-02, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  3. Ramos, Raul & Clar, Miquel & SuriƱach, Jordi, 2000. "Trade And Exchange Rate Variability: New Evidence From Eu Countries," ERSA conference papers ersa00p103, European Regional Science Association.
  4. Gunawardana, Pemasiri, 2005. "The Asian Currency Crisis and Australian Exports to East Asia," Economic Analysis and Policy (EAP), Queensland University of Technology (QUT), School of Economics and Finance, vol. 35(1-2), pages 73-90, March/Sep.
  5. Shehu Usman Rano Aliyu, 2010. "Exchange rate volatility and export trade in Nigeria: an empirical investigation," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(13), pages 1071-1084.
  6. SEKMEN, Fuat & SARIBAS, Hakan, 2007. "Cointegration And Causality Among Exchange Rate, Export, And Import: Empirical Evidence From Turkey," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(2), pages 71-78.
  7. Stavarek, Daniel, 2006. "Ability of the New EU Member States to Fulfill the Exchange Rate Stability Convergence Criterion," MPRA Paper 1202, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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