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Monetary Policy and Leading Indicators of Inflation in Sweden

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Author Info

  • Josef Baumgartner
  • Göran Zettergren
  • Ramana Ramaswamy

Abstract

This paper derives a set of leading indicators of inflation for Sweden. It also discusses methodological and policy issues pertaining to the estimation of these indicators. The main findings are: (1) narrow money is the most powerful leading inflation indicator; (2) broad money and inflation expectations have significant predictive information on inflation; (3) the output gap, interest rates, and the credit aggregate have some predictive information on inflation, and this information is confined to a shorter time horizon than either the monetary aggregates or inflation expectations; and (4) implied forward rates have only weak predictive information on inflation.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 97/34.

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Length: 31
Date of creation: 01 Apr 1997
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:97/34

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Cited by:
  1. Irving Fisher Committee, 1997. "First Meeting of the Irving Fisher Committee, 18-26 August 1997, Istanbul," IFC Bulletins, Bank for International Settlements, number 01, October -.
  2. V. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli & Carmine Trecroci, 1998. "Institutional Change, Inflation Targeting and the Stability of Interest Rate Reaction Functions," Working Papers 9815, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Aug 1998.
  3. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli & Carmine Trecroci, 2000. "Does Institutional Change Really Matter? Inflation Targets, Central Bank Reform and Interest Rate Policy in the OECD Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 278, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2006. "Money and Swedish Inflation Reconsidered," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 270/2006, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
  5. J.M. Berk, 1998. "Monetary transmission: what do we know and how can we use it?," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 51(205), pages 145-170.
  6. J.M. Berk, 1998. "Monetary transmission: what do we know and how can we use it?," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 51(205), pages 145-170.
  7. Gibson, Heather D. & Lazaretou, Sophia, 2001. "Leading inflation indicators for Greece," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 325-348, August.
  8. Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2004. "A Model for Forecasting Swedish Inflation," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 246/2004, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.

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