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Macroeconomic Cycles in China

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  • Stefan E. Oppers

Abstract

This paper investigates the macroeconomic cycles China has experienced since the onset of reform in the late 1970s. It finds that the recurrent inflationary episodes that characterize the cycles are associated primarily with surges in the main components of aggregate demand. The most recent cycle stands out in achieving for the first time a reduction in inflation without a major slowdown in growth. The soft landing was facilitated by a number of factors, including increases in capacity as a result of the surge in investment spending early on in the cycle.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 97/135.

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Length: 35
Date of creation: 01 Oct 1997
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:97/135

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Cited by:
  1. Yin Zhang & Guanghua Wan, 2005. "China's Business Cycles: Perspectives from an AD-AS Model ," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 445-469, December.
  2. Michael Funke, 2005. "Inflation in Mainland China - Modelling a Roller Coaster Ride," Working Papers 152005, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  3. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Understanding the inflation-output nexus for China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 82-90, March.
  4. Nhu-Nguyen Ngo & Guy Longueville, 2004. "Le système bancaire chinois : un risque systémique ?," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 77(4), pages 187-202.
  5. Li, Cheng, 2010. "Government Size and Macroeconomic Stability: Sub-National Evidence from China," MPRA Paper 28226, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Gerlach-Kristen, Petra, 2009. "Business cycle and inflation synchronisation in Mainland China and Hong Kong," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 404-418, June.
  7. Stefan Gerlach & Wensheng Peng, 2005. "Output Gaps and Inflation in Mainland China," Working Papers 202005, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  8. Zhang, Chengsi & Murasawa, Yasutomo, 2012. "Multivariate model-based gap measures and a new Phillips curve for China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 60-70.
  9. Jorg Scheibe, 2003. "The Chinese Output Gap During the Reform Period 1978-2002," Economics Series Working Papers 179, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  10. Min Gong & Wenpu Li, 2010. "Assessing the role of aggregate demand and supply shocks in China’s macroeconomic fluctuation," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 464-488, September.
  11. Scheibe, Jörg & Vines, David, 2005. "A Phillips Curve for China," CEPR Discussion Papers 4957, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Jisheng Yang, 2010. "Expectation, excess liquidity and inflation dynamics in China," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 412-429, September.
  13. Curran, Declan & Funke, Michael, 2006. "Taking the temperature – forecasting GDP growth for mainland China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2006, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  14. Simon, György, 2001. "Reform és növekedés Kínában
    [Reform and growth in China]
    ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 673-692.
  15. Joerg Scheibe & David Vines, 2005. "A Phillips Curve For China," CAMA Working Papers 2005-02, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

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