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Have North-South Growth Linkages Changed?

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  • Alexander W. Hoffmaister
  • Mahmood Pradhan
  • Hossein Samiei

Abstract

This paper provides preliminary econometric evidence suggesting that the traditional trade-based business cycle linkages between the North and the South have changed. Many countries in the South, in particular in Asia, appear to have become more resilient to cyclical movements in the North, and to have come to play a more significant role in sustaining global activity, in particular during the 1991-93 slowdown. A number of factors may have contributed to these changes: improved domestic policies and more open trade and exchange regimes; closer financial linkages with the North and a substantial increase in capital flows; a marked rise in inter-regional trade; and greater diversification of the exports of the South.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 96/54.

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Length: 38
Date of creation: 01 May 1996
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:96/54

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  1. Robert J. Barro, 1998. "Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522543, December.
  2. Borensztein, E. & De Gregorio, J. & Lee, J-W., 1998. "How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth?1," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 115-135, June.
  3. Lewis, Arthur, 1979. "The Slowing Down of the Engine of Growth," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 1979-2, Nobel Prize Committee.
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  9. Findlay, Ronald, 1980. "The Terms of Trade and Equilibrium Growth in the World Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 291-99, June.
  10. Alexander W. Hoffmaister & Mahmood Pradhan & Hossein Samiei, 1996. "Have North-South Growth Linkages Changed?," IMF Working Papers 96/54, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Kremers, Jeroen J M & Ericsson, Neil R & Dolado, Juan J, 1992. "The Power of Cointegration Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 325-48, August.
  12. Sebastian Edwards, 1993. "Trade Policy, Exchange Rates and Growth," NBER Working Papers 4511, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Dowrick, Steve & Quiggin, John, 1997. "True Measures of GDP and Convergence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 41-64, March.
  14. Riedel, James, 1984. "Trade as the Engine of Growth in Developing Countries, Revisited," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(373), pages 56-73, March.
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  16. Phillips, Peter C B & Loretan, Mico, 1991. "Estimating Long-run Economic Equilibria," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 407-36, May.
  17. Darity, William, Jr, 1987. "Debt, Finance, Production and Trade in a North-South Model: The Surplus Approach," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(3), pages 211-27, September.
  18. Beenstock, Michael, 1988. "An Econometric Investigation of North-South Interdependence," CEPR Discussion Papers 230, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Alexander W. Hoffmaister & Jorge Roldos, 1997. "Are Business Cycles Different in Asia and Latin America?," IMF Working Papers 97/9, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1992. "The Case for Trade Liberalization in Developing Countries," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 69-85, Winter.
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  23. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Bonilla, Eugenio Diaz, 2008. "Global macroeconomic developments and poverty:," IFPRI discussion papers 766, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  2. HIRATA Hideaki & Ayhan KOSE & Christopher OTROK, 2013. "Regionalization vs. Globalization," Discussion papers 13004, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  3. AkIn, Cigdem & Kose, M. Ayhan, 2008. "Changing nature of North-South linkages: Stylized facts and explanations," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 1-28, February.
  4. Alexander W. Hoffmaister & Mahmood Pradhan & Hossein Samiei, 1996. "Have North-South Growth Linkages Changed?," IMF Working Papers 96/54, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Emilio Espino & Julian Kozlowski & Juan M. Sánchez, 2013. "Regionalization vs. globalization," Working Papers 2013-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  6. André, NYEMBWE & Konstantin, KHOLODILIN, 2005. "North-South Asymmetric Relationships : Does the EMU Business Affect Small African Economies ?," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2005032, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
  7. Yetman, James, 2011. "Exporting recessions: International links and the business cycle," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 12-14, January.

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