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Capital Inflows and the Real Exchange Rate

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  • Pierre-Richard Agénor
  • Alexander W. Hoffmaister

Abstract

This paper examines the links between capital inflows and the real exchange rate under pegged exchange rates. The analytical framework is described, and a near-VAR model linking capital inflows, interest rate differentials, government spending, money base velocity, and the temporary component of the real exchange rate (TCRER) is estimated for Korea, Mexico, the Philippines, and Thailand. TCRER movements are associated only weakly with shocks to capital flows. Negative shocks to U.S. interest rates lead to capital inflows in Asia and a TCRER appreciation in the Philippines and Thailand. Positive shocks to government spending have a small but statistically significant effect on the TCRER for Korea.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 96/137.

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Length: 50
Date of creation: 01 Dec 1996
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:96/137

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Cited by:
  1. Ramon Moreno, 1999. "Depreciation and recessions in East Asia," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 27-40.
  2. Juthathip Jongwanich, 2006. "Exchange Rate Regimes, Capital Account Opening and Real Exchange Rates: Evidence from Thailand," Departmental Working Papers 2006-01, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  3. Claudia M. Buch & Lusine Lusinyan, 2000. "Determinants of Short-Term Debt," Kiel Working Papers 994, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  4. Camille Baulant & Virginie Coudert & Michel Aglietta, 1999. "Compétitivité et régime de change en Europe centrale," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(6), pages 1221-1236.
  5. Filer, Larry II, 2004. "Large capital inflows to Korea: the traditional developing economy story?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 99-110, February.

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