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Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies

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  • Lionel Halpern
  • Charles Wyplosz

Abstract

A stylized fact of the transition process is an early profound exchange rate depreciation followed by continuing real appreciation. Absent historical reference points, it is difficult to judge whether the real appreciation is threatening competitiveness. This paper interprets the stylized facts and offers estimates of the equilibrium real exchange rate based on an international comparison of dollar wages and on a study of the dynamics of real exchange rates in several transition economies. The results suggest that the process of real appreciation is a combination of a return to equilibrium following the early overshooting and equilibrium appreciation.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 96/125.

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Length: 40
Date of creation: 01 Nov 1996
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:96/125

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