Are Exchange Rates Excessively Volatile? and What Does "Excessively Volatile" Mean, Anyway?
AbstractUsing data for the major currencies from 1973 to 1994, we apply recent tests of asset price volatility to re-examine whether exchange rates have been excessively volatile with respect to the predictions of the monetary model of the exchange rate and of standard extensions that allow for sticky prices, sluggish money adjustment, and time-varying risk premia. Consistent with previous evidence from regression-based tests, most of the models that we examine are rejected by our volatility-based tests. In general, however, we find that exchange rates have not been excessively volatile relative to movements of their determinants, with respect to the predictions of even the most restrictive version of the monetary model. Alternative measures of “volatility”, however, may disguise the cause of rejection as excessive exchange rate volatility. This a Working Paper and the author(s) would welcome any comments on the present text. Citations should refer to a Working Paper of the International Monetary Fund, mentioning the author(s), and the date of issuance. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the Fund.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 95/85.
Date of creation: 01 Aug 1995
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Other versions of this item:
- Leonardo Bartolini & Gordon M. Bodnar, 1996. "Are Exchange Rates Excessively Volatile? And What Does "Excessively Volatile" Mean, Anyway?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 72-96, March.
- Leonardo Bartolini & Gordon M. Bodnar, 1996. "Are exchange rates excessively volatile? And what does "excessively volatile" mean, anyway?," Research Paper 9601, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
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