Speculative Attacks and Currency Crises
AbstractThis paper estimates a speculative attack model of currency crises in order to identify the role of economic fundamentals and any early warning signals of a potential currency crisis. The data from the Mexican economy was used to illustrate the model. Based on the results, a deterioration in fundamentals appears to have generated high one-step-ahead probabilities for the regime changes during the sample period 1982-1994. Particularly, increases in inflation differentials, appreciations of the real exchange rate, foreign reserve losses, expansionary monetary and fiscal policies, and increases in the share of short-term foreign currency debt appear to have contributed to the market pressures and regime changes in that period.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 95/112.
Date of creation: 01 Nov 1995
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Patrick N. Osakwe & Lawrence L. Schembri, 1999.
"Real Effects of Collapsing Exchange Rate Regimes: An Application to Mexico,"
Carleton Economic Papers, Carleton University, Department of Economics
99-07, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2002.
- Osakwe, Patrick N. & Schembri, Lawrence L., 2002. "Real effects of collapsing exchange rate regimes: an application to Mexico," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 299-325, August.
- Osakwe, Patrick & Schembri, Lawrence, 1999. "Real Effects of Collapsing Exchange Rate Regimes: An Application to Mexico," Working Papers, Bank of Canada 99-10, Bank of Canada.
- Brana, Sophie & Chenaf-Nicet, Dalila, 2001. "Indicateurs avancés de crise de change : un examen critique," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 77(4), pages 569-592, dÃ©cembre.
- Murray, John & Schembri, Lawrence & St-Amant, Pierre, 2003. "Revisiting the case for flexible exchange rates in North America," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 207-240, August.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.