Speculative Attacks and Currency Crises: The Mexican Experience
AbstractBy using data from the Mexican economy, this paper estimates a speculative attack model of currency crises in order to identify the role of macroeconomic fundamentals and early warning signals of a potential currency crisis. A deterioration in fundamentals appears to generate high one-step-ahead probabilities for the observed regime changes during the sample period 1982Ã¢â¬â1994. Particularly, foreign reserve losses, expansionary output, monetary and fiscal policies, an increase in inflation differentials and the share of short-term foreign currency-indexed debt, and an appreciation of the real exchange rate appear to have contributed to the speculative pressures and the associated regime changes. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1996
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 95/112.
Date of creation: 01 Nov 1995
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- Inci Ã–tker & Ceyla PazarbaÅŸioÄlu, 1996. "Speculative attacks and currency crises: The Mexican experience," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 535-552, March.
- B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
- S31 - - - - - -
- F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-02-16 (All new papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Peter Kennedy, 2003. "A Guide to Econometrics, 5th Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 5, volume 1, number 026261183x, January.
- Pierre-Richard AgÃ©nor & Jagdeep S. Bhandari & Robert P. Flood, 1992. "Speculative Attacks and Models of Balance of Payments Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(2), pages 357-394, June.
- Edin, Per-Anders & Vredin, Anders, 1993.
"Devaluation Risk in Target Zones: Evidence from the Nordic Countries,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 161-75, January.
- Edin, P.A. & Vredin, A., 1991. "Devaluation Risk in Target Zones: Evidence from the Nordic Countries," Papers 1991g, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
- Goldberg, Linda S., 1994.
"Predicting exchange rate crises : Mexico revisited,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 36(3-4), pages 413-430, May.
- Linda S. Goldberg, 1990. "Predicting Exchange Rate Crises: Mexico Revisited," NBER Working Papers 3320, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Goldberg, Linda S., 1990. "Predicting Exchange Rate Crises: Mexico Revisited," Working Papers 90-11, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
- Jeffrey Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andres Velasco, 1995.
"The Collapse of the Mexican Peso: What Have We Learned?,"
Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers
1724, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Sachs, Jeffrey & Tornell, Aaron & Velasco, Andres, 1995. "The Collapse of the Mexican Peso: What Have We Learned?," Working Papers 95-22, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Jeffrey Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andres Velasco, 1995. "The Collapse of the Mexican Peso: What Have We Learned?," NBER Working Papers 5142, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Goldberg, Linda S., 1991.
"Collapsing exchange rate regimes: shocks and biases,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 252-263, June.
- Linda S. Goldberg, 1988. "Collapsing Exchange Rate Regimes: Shocks and Biases," NBER Working Papers 2702, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
- Blackburn, Keith & Sola, Martin, 1993. " Speculative Currency Attacks and Balance of Payments Crises," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 119-44, June.
- Godfrey,L. G., 1991. "Misspecification Tests in Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521424592, December.
- Blanco, Herminio & Garber, Peter M, 1986. "Recurrent Devaluation and Speculative Attacks on the Mexican Peso," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 148-66, February.
- Chin-Shien Lin & Haider A. Khan & Ying-Chieh Wang & Ruei-Yuan Chang, 2006.
"A New Approach to Modeling Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises : can a machine-learning fuzzy expert system predict the currency crises effectively?,"
CARF-F-065, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
- Lin, Chin-Shien & Khan, Haider A. & Chang, Ruei-Yuan & Wang, Ying-Chieh, 2008. "A new approach to modeling early warning systems for currency crises: Can a machine-learning fuzzy expert system predict the currency crises effectively?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1098-1121, November.
- Chin-Shien Lin & Haider A. Khan & Ying-Chieh Wang & Ruei-Yuan Chang, 2006. "A New Approach to Modeling Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises : can a machine-learning fuzzy expert system predict the currency crises effectively?," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-411, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- Murray, John & Schembri, Lawrence & St-Amant, Pierre, 2003. "Revisiting the case for flexible exchange rates in North America," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 207-240, August.
- Patrick N. Osakwe & Lawrence L. Schembri, 1999.
"Real Effects of Collapsing Exchange Rate Regimes: An Application to Mexico,"
Carleton Economic Papers
99-07, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2002.
- Osakwe, Patrick N. & Schembri, Lawrence L., 2002. "Real effects of collapsing exchange rate regimes: an application to Mexico," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 299-325, August.
- Osakwe, Patrick & Schembri, Lawrence, 1999. "Real Effects of Collapsing Exchange Rate Regimes: An Application to Mexico," Working Papers 99-10, Bank of Canada.
- Sell, Friedrich L., 1999. "Risiken für die Emerging Markets in Mittel- und Osteuropa vor dem Hintergrund der Erfahrungen Thailands, Mexikos und Tschechiens ; Beitrag für den Projektbericht: Währungspolitische Optionen für d," Working Papers in Economics 1999,3, Universität der Bundeswehr München, Economic Research Group.
- Brana, Sophie & Chenaf-Nicet, Dalila, 2001. "Indicateurs avancés de crise de change : un examen critique," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 77(4), pages 569-592, dÃ©cembre.
- Thomson Fontaine, 2005. "Currency Crises in Developed and Emerging Market Economies: A Comparative Empirical Treatment," IMF Working Papers 05/13, International Monetary Fund.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.