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The Use of Financial Spreads As Indicator Variables

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  • E. P. Davis
  • S. G. B. Henry

Abstract

There has been growing interest in the use of financial spreads as advance indicators of real activity and inflation. Empirical evidence is marshalled on a range of spreads when these are used in vector autoregressive models of the UK and German economies. It is found that they do have significant information, even after allowing for the effects of other influences upon macro-economic activity.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 94/31.

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Length: 28
Date of creation: 01 Mar 1994
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:94/31

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Cited by:
  1. Fernando Barran & Virginie Coudert & Benoît Mojon, 1995. "Interest Rates, Banking Spreads and Credit Supply: The Real Effects," Working Papers 1995-01, CEPII research center.
  2. Mario Quagliariello, 2007. "Banks' riskiness over the business cycle: a panel analysis on Italian intermediaries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 119-138.
  3. Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, 2002. "The Impact of Banking Crises on Money Demand and Price Stability," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(3), pages 1.
  4. Norman R. Swanson & Nii Ayi Armah, 2011. "Some Variables are More Worthy Than Others: New Diffusion Index Evidence on the Monitoring of Key Economic Indicators," Departmental Working Papers 201115, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  5. Andrea Nobili, 2005. "Forecasting Output Growth And Inflation In The Euro Area: Are Financial Spreads Useful?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 544, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  6. Mario Quagliariello, . "Banks' Performance over the Business Cycle: A Panel Analysis on Italian Intermediaries," Discussion Papers 04/17, Department of Economics, University of York.

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