Changes in the Relationship Between the Long-Term Interest Rate and its Determinants
AbstractThis paper assesses the relative importance of alternative explanations for the rise in long-term interest rates in the United States from October 1993 to April 1994. Standard econometric models of the term structure are shown to have a structural break in the early 1980s. An important reason for this change in the traditional term structure relationship appears to be an increase in the responsiveness of long-term rates to changes in the stance of monetary policy. Augmented term structure models that explicitly incorporate the role of monetary policy in determining the level of long-term rates are then constructed. These models track variations in the long-term rate better than traditional term structure models, but still leave a significant fraction of the recent increase in long-term rates unexplained.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 94/124.
Date of creation: 01 Oct 1994
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- Suzan Hol, 2006. "Determinants of long-term interest rates in the Scandinavian countries," Discussion Papers, Research Department of Statistics Norway 469, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
- Kelly R Eckhold, 1998. "Determinants of New Zealand bond yields," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G98/1, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
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