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Using An EC-Wide Monetary Aggregate in Stage Two of EMU

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Author Info

  • Peter B. Kenen
  • Tamim Bayoumi

Abstract

This paper looks at whether the aggregate ERM money supply has been a useful predictor of short-term changes in inflation and growth, and long-term trends in price levels among the core ERM countries. The evidence suggests that over the period since 1987, when there have been no realignments, the ERM money supply performs at least as well, and arguably better, than the individual national aggregates in predicting nominal aggregates such as inflation and the price level, while neither money supply is a good predictor of real activity.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 92/56.

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Length: 20
Date of creation: 01 Jul 1992
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:92/56

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Related research

Keywords: European Monetary System; Monetary aggregates; money supply; inflation; monetary policy; monetary aggregate; money supplies; domestic money supply; price level; monetary policies; money stock; monetary fund; monetary union; inflation rates; monetary system; real money supply; demand for money; national monetary policies; aggregate demand; monetary coordination; real output; inflation rate; inflation growth; price stability; monetary integration; monetary stabilization; independent monetary policy; international monetary cooperation; monetary target; real money; intermediate monetary target; global money; inflationary pressures; changes in prices; monetary stance; european monetary institute;

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Cited by:
  1. Miguel Lebre de Freitas, 2003. "Currency substitution and money demand in Euroland," NIPE Working Papers 11/2003, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  2. Ivo Arnold, 1996. "Fallacies in the interpretation of a european monetary aggregate," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 132(4), pages 753-762, December.
  3. Renato Filosa, 1995. "Money demand stability and currency substitution in six European countries (1980-1992)," BIS Working Papers 30, Bank for International Settlements.
  4. Alberto Giovannini & Bart Turtelboom, 1992. "Currency Substitution," NBER Working Papers 4232, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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