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Models of Inflation and the Costs of Disinflation

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  • Guy Meredith
  • Bankim Chadha
  • Paul R. Masson

Abstract

This paper focuses on the output costs of disinflation. A model of inflation with both forward and backward elements seems to characterize reality. Such an inflation model is estimated using data for industrial countries, and the output costs of a disinflation path are calculated, first analytically in a simple theoretical model, then by simulation of a global, multi-region empirical model. The credibility of a preannounced path for money consistent with the lowest output loss is considered. An alternative, more credible policy may be to announce an exchange rate peg to a low inflation currency.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 91/97.

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Length: 34
Date of creation: 01 Oct 1991
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:91/97

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