Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Assessing Target Zone Credibility

Contents:

Author Info

  • Lars E. O. Svensson

Abstract

The paper presents estimates of devaluation expectations for six EMS currencies relative to the Deutsche mark, for the period March 1979-May 1990. The estimation method is simple and operational, and consistently generates sensible results. The estimates are constructed by the adjusting interest rate differentials by subtracting estimated expected rates of depreciation within the exchange rate band. The adjustment is nontrivial because exchange rates within the ERM bands display mean reversion rather than random walk (unit root) behavior. The adjustment is essential since the expected rates of depreciation are usually of about the same magnitude as the interest rate differentials.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=971
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 91/96.

as in new window
Length: 35
Date of creation: 01 Oct 1991
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:91/96

Contact details of provider:
Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Email:
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

Related research

Keywords:

References

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Antoine Magnier, 1992. "Théorie des zones cibles et fonctionnement du SME," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, Programme National Persée, vol. 104(3), pages 87-113.
  2. Zhaohui Chen & Alberto Giovannini, 1993. "The Determinants of Realignment Expectations Under the EMS: Some Empirical Regularities," NBER Working Papers 4291, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Hans Lindberg & Lars E.O. Svensson & Paul Soderlind, 1991. "Devaluation Expectations: The Swedish Krona 1982-1991," NBER Working Papers 3918, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Zhaohui Chen & Alberto Giovannini, 1992. "Estimating Expected Exchange Rates Under Target Zones," NBER Working Papers 3955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Knot, Klaas & de Haan, Jakob, 1995. "Interest rate differentials and exchange rate policies in Austria, The Netherlands, and Belgium," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 363-386, May.
  6. Olavi Rantala, 1992. "An econometric diffusion model of exchange rate movements within a band : implications for interest rate differential and credibility of exchange rate policy," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 98-109, Autumn.
  7. Milind Shrikhande, 1997. "The cost of doing business abroad and international capital market equilibrium," Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 97-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  8. Gerlach, Stefan, 1995. "Adjustable pegs vs. single currencies: How valuable is the option to realign?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 1155-1170, June.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:91/96. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.