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Indicators of Fiscal Sustainability

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  • Jocelyn Horne

Abstract

This paper assesses the usefulness of summary measures of fiscal sustainability for the purpose of multilateral surveillance. An overview of the main conceptual issues is first presented. Next, an assessment is made of the strengths and weaknesses of the summary measures in the context of their recent application to industrial countries by the OECD and the Fund. The measures are shown to highlight the inadequacy of using trends in public debt ratios to assess sustainability. However, the measures and their recent application are subject to a number of caveats, in particular in relation to their sensitivity to the discount rate, time paths of government expenditures and private sector behavior.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 91/5.

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Length: 34
Date of creation: 01 Jan 1991
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:91/5

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Cited by:
  1. Polito, Vito & Wickens, Mike, 2012. "A model-based indicator of the fiscal stance," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 526-551.
  2. Koo, Chung Mo, 2002. "Fiscal sustainability in the wake of the economic crisis in Korea," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 659-669.
  3. Richard M. Bird, 2003. "Fiscal Flows, Fiscal Balance, and Fiscal Sustainability," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0302, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
  4. Bhatt, Antra, 2010. "Revisiting Indicators of Public Debt Sustainability: Capital Expenditure, Growth and Public Debt in India," MPRA Paper 27422, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Cruz-Rodriguez, Alexis, 2013. "La END, el plan nacional plurianual del sector público y la sostenibilidad fiscal en la República Dominicana
    [The Dominican National Development Strategy (END), the National Multi-Year Public Sec
    ," MPRA Paper 49376, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Marcel, Mario, 2001. "Balance Estructural del Gobierno Central. Metodología y Estimaciones para Chile
    [Structural Bazlance of Central Government. Methodology and estimates for Chile]
    ," MPRA Paper 43338, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Stoian, Andreea, 2012. "Fiscal Sustainability of the European Welfare State: Evidence from Cumulative Excess of the Primary Balance," Working Papers 27/2012, Universidade Portucalense, Centro de Investigação em Gestão e Economia (CIGE).

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