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Tax Potential vs. Tax Effort: A Cross-Country Analysis of Armenia's Stubbornly Low Tax Collection

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  • Mr. David A. Grigorian
  • Mr. Hamid R Davoodi

Abstract

Despite recording double digit growth since 2000, Armenia's tax-to-GDP ratio has been fairly stable at about 14½ percent. This paper catalogues a range of factors that may account for Armenia's stubbornly for tax collection by benchmarking Armenia's tax-to-GDP against some comparator countries and conducting an extensive econometric study of the main determinants of tax collection. We find empirical support for the hypothesis that the persistence of Armenia's low tax-GDP ratio can be traced to persistence of weak institutions and a large shadow economy. The gap between the potential and actual tax collection in Armenia could be as high as 6½ percent of GDP. We conclude with some policy recommendations that, if adopted, can boost revenue buoyancy.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. David A. Grigorian & Mr. Hamid R Davoodi, 2007. "Tax Potential vs. Tax Effort: A Cross-Country Analysis of Armenia's Stubbornly Low Tax Collection," IMF Working Papers 2007/106, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2007/106
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    2. Productivity Commission, 2008. "Assessing Local Government Revenue Raising Capacity," Research Reports, Productivity Commission, Government of Australia, number 26.
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    4. Carola Pessino & Ricardo Fenochietto, 2010. "Determining countries’ tax effort," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 195(4), pages 65-87, december.
    5. Siongofolo Seydou Soro, 2020. "Institutional Quality and Tax Revenue in C te d Ivoire: Evidence from ARDL Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(6), pages 40-49.
    6. Mwakalobo, Adam B. S., 2015. "Dynamics of Revenue Generation in Tanzania, Kenya and Uganda: A Co-integration and error-correction modeling approach," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 3(2), July.
    7. Attiya Y. Javid & Umaima Arif, 2012. "Analysis of Revenue Potential and Revenue Effort in Developing Asian Countries," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 365-380.
    8. Sacchidananda Mukherjee, 2020. "Goods and Services Tax efficiency across Indian States: panel stochastic frontier analysis," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 225-251, December.
    9. Cao, Rui-fen & Zhang, An-lu & Cai, Yin-ying & Xie, Xiang-xiang, 2020. "How imbalanced land development affects local fiscal condition? A case study of Hubei Province, China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    10. Gwaindepi, Abel, 2019. "Domestic revenue mobilization in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America: A comparative analysis since 1980," Lund Papers in Economic History 209, Lund University, Department of Economic History.
    11. Garg, Sandya & Ashima Goyal & Rupayan Pal, 2014. "Why tax effort falls short of capacity in Indian states: A Stochastic frontier approach," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2014-032, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    12. Compaoré, Ali, 2022. "Access-for-all to financial services: Non-resources tax revenue-harnessing opportunities in developing countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 236-245.
    13. Abel Gwaindepi, 2021. "Domestic revenue mobilisation in developing countries: An exploratory analysis of sub‐Saharan Africa and Latin America," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(2), pages 396-421, March.
    14. OGNERU, Victor, 2019. "Analysis Of The Relationship Between Tax Revenue And Gross Value Added In The Romanian Economy," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 23(2), pages 37-55, June.
    15. Lien, Nguyen Phuong, 2015. "The impact of institutional quality on tax revenue in developing countries," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(10), pages 181-195, October.
    16. Victor Barros & Joao Tovar Jalles & Joaquim Miranda Sarmento, 2023. "Drivers of the Tax Effort: Evidence from a Large Panel," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(1), pages 96-136, March.
    17. Brima Ibrahim Baimba Kargbo & Adegbemi Festus O. Egwaikhide, 2012. "Tax Elasticity in Sierra Leone: A Time Series Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(4), pages 432-447.
    18. Antinyan, Armenak & Corazzini, Luca & Pavesi, Filippo, 2020. "Does trust in the government matter for whistleblowing on tax evaders? Survey and experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 77-95.
    19. Armenak Antinyan & Luca Corazzini & Filippo Pavesi, 2018. "What Matters for Whistleblowing on Tax Evaders? Survey and Experimental Evidence," Working Papers 07/2018, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    20. Víctor Mauricio Castaneda Rodríguez, 2014. "El gasto social como factor que favorece una mayor dependencia del IVA. Un análisis para el caso colombiano," Revista Ecos de Economía, Universidad EAFIT, June.
    21. Gohar S. Sedrakyan, 2017. "The Effects of Presumptive Methods of Taxation on Revenue Mobilization in the Value Added Tax," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper1718, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    22. Galvis Ciro, Juan Camilo & Ferreira de Mendonça, Helder, 2016. "Inflation targeting and tax effort: Evidence from Colombia," MPRA Paper 90544, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Dec 2018.
    23. Mr. Marco Committeri & Ms. Carola Pessino, 2013. "Understanding Countries’ Tax Effort," IMF Working Papers 2013/244, International Monetary Fund.

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