The Day After Tomorrow: Designing an Optimal Fiscal Strategy for Libya
AbstractLibya is highly dependent on exhaustible and volatile hydrocarbon resources, which constitute the bulk of government revenues. Although resource wealth provides the means to promote socio-economic development, procyclical fiscal policies threaten macroeconomic stability as well as fiscal sustainability and intergenerational equity. In three parts, this paper provides an assessment of the cyclically adjusted fiscal stance, analyzes fiscal sustainability according the permanent income framework, and simulates various fiscal policy rules with the objective of developing a rule-based fiscal strategy that would delink the economy from oil price fluctuations, improve the management of resource wealth, and safeguard macroeconomic stability.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 13/79.
Date of creation: 27 Mar 2013
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Rogoff, Kenneth, 1990.
"Equilibrium Political Budget Cycles,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 80(1), pages 21-36, March.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Vegh, Carlos, 2004.
"When it rains, it pours: Procyclical capital flows and macroeconomic policies,"
13883, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh, 2005. "When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 11-82 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Vegh, 2004. "When it Rains, it Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Working Papers 10780, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999.
"Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
- Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995. "Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tom Doan, . "BKFILTER: RATS procedure to implement band pass filter using Baxter-King method," Statistical Software Components RTS00026, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Teresa Ter-Minassian, 2006. "Fiscal Rules for Subnational Governments: Can They Promote Fiscal Discipline?," OECD Journal on Budgeting, OECD Publishing, vol. 6(3), pages 1-11.
- Ravn, M.O. & Uhlig, H., 2002.
"On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott Filter for the frequency of observations,"
Open Access publications from University College London
http://discovery.ucl.ac.u, University College London.
- Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
- Rudolfs Bems & Irineu E. Carvalho Filho, 2009.
"Current Account and Precautionary Savings for Exporters of Exhaustible Resources,"
IMF Working Papers
09/33, International Monetary Fund.
- Bems, Rudolfs & de Carvalho Filho, Irineu, 2011. "The current account and precautionary savings for exporters of exhaustible resources," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 48-64, May.
- Steven Barnett & Rolando Ossowski, 2002. "Operational Aspects of Fiscal Policy in Oil-Producing Countries," IMF Working Papers 02/177, International Monetary Fund.
- Serhan Cevik, 2011. "Policy Coordination in Fiscal Federalism: Drawing Lessons from the Dubai Debt Crisis," IMF Working Papers 11/147, International Monetary Fund.
- Oya Celasun & Xavier Debrun & Jonathan D. Ostry, 2006.
"Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A "Fan-Chart" Approach,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(3), pages 3.
- Oya Celasun & Xavier Debrun & Jonathan David Ostry, 2006. "Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A "Fan-Chart" Approach," IMF Working Papers 06/67, International Monetary Fund.
- Xavier Debrun & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2007. "The Discipline-Enhancing Role of Fiscal Institutions: Theory and Empirical Evidence," IMF Working Papers 07/171, International Monetary Fund.
- Nina Budina & Tidiane Kinda & Andrea Schaechter & Anke Weber, 2012. "Fiscal Rules at a Glance: Country Details from a New Dataset," IMF Working Papers 12/273, International Monetary Fund.
- Paulo A. Medas & Daria Zakharova, 2009. "A Primer on Fiscal Analysis in Oil-Producing Countries," IMF Working Papers 09/56, International Monetary Fund.
- Reda Cherif & Fuad Hasanov, 2012. "Oil Exporters' Dilemma: How Much to Save and How Much to Invest," IMF Working Papers 12/4, International Monetary Fund.
- Xavier Debrun, 2011. "Democratic Accountability, Deficit Bias, and Independent Fiscal Agencies," IMF Working Papers 11/173, International Monetary Fund.
- Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro & Mauricio Villafuerte & Thomas Baunsgaard & Christine J. Richmond, 2012. "Fiscal Frameworks for Resource Rich Developing Countries," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 12/04, International Monetary Fund.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.