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The Economics of Political Transitions

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  • Padamja Khandelwal
  • Agustin Roitman
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    Abstract

    Over the past two years, ongoing political transitions in many Arab countries have led to social unrest and an economic downturn. This paper examines comparable historical episodes of political instability to derive implications for the near- and medium-term economic outlook in the Arab countries in transition. In general, past episodes of political instability were characterized by a sharp deterioration in macroeconomic outcomes and a sluggish recovery over the medium term. Recent economic developments in the Arab countries in transition seem to be unfolding along similar lines, although the weak external environment and large fiscal vulnerabilities could result in a prolonged slump.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 13/69.

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    Length: 13
    Date of creation: 13 Mar 2013
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:13/69

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    Keywords: Political economy; Egypt; Tunisia; Yemen; Jordan; Libya; Morocco; Economic conditions; Economic growth; Transition economies; political instability; Arab Countries in Transition; Arab Spring; exchange rate; social unrest; current account balance; exchange rate regimes; currency depreciation; real effective exchange rate; exchange rates; unemployment rate; fixed capital formation; exchange rate flexibility; flexible exchange rate regimes; real exchange rate; investor confidence; social disruptions; exchange rate movements; exchange rate index; external financing; exchange restrictions; aggregate demand; trading partners; real exchange rates; fixed exchange rate regimes; ppp; exchange arrangements; import prices; income distribution; exchange rate depreciation; terms of trade; oil prices; external shocks;

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    1. Ari Aisen & Francisco José Veiga, 2010. "How does political instability affect economic growth?," NIPE Working Papers, NIPE - Universidade do Minho 5/2010, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    2. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1993. "Income Distribution, Political Instability, and Investment," NBER Working Papers 4486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Tobias N. Rasmussen, 2004. "Macroeconomic Implications of Natural Disasters in the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 04/224, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Perotti, Roberto & Alesina, Alberto, 1996. "Income Distribution, Political Instability, and Investment," Scholarly Articles 4553018, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    5. Freund, Caroline & Jaud, Melise, 2013. "Regime Change, Democracy and Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 9282, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Paul J. Burke & Andrew Leigh, 2010. "Do output contractions trigger democratic change?," CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University 633, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    7. Roubini, Nouriel & Swagel, Phillip & Ozler, Sule & Alesina, Alberto, 1996. "Political Instability and Economic Growth," Scholarly Articles 4553024, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    8. Aisen, Ari & Veiga, Francisco Jose, 2006. "Does Political Instability Lead to Higher Inflation? A Panel Data Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1379-1389, August.
    9. Alesina, Alberto, et al, 1996. " Political Instability and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 189-211, June.
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    Cited by:
    1. Marek Dabrowski, 2014. "Macroeconomic and fiscal challenges faced by the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean region," CASE Network Studies and Analyses, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research 0471, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.

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