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Inward and Outward Spillovers in the SACU Area

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  • Jorge Iván Canales Kriljenko
  • Farayi Gwenhamo
  • Saji Thomas
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    Abstract

    Spillovers from South Africa into the other members of the Souther Africa Customs Union (known as the BLNS for Botstwana, Lesotho, Namibia, and Swaziland) are substantial reflecting sizeable real and financial interlinkages. However, shocks to real GDP growth in South Africa do not seem to systematically affect growth developments in BLNS countries as a group. Nevertheless, vector autoregressions, which allow country-specific parameters, suggest some strong spillovers onto the smaller economies.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 13/31.

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    Length: 24
    Date of creation: 31 Jan 2013
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:13/31

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    Related research

    Keywords: Spillovers; Botswana; Lesotho; Namibia; Swaziland; South Africa; Southern Africa; Regional shocks; External shocks; Workers remittances; Foreign direct investment; Fiscal policy; Sub-Saharan Africa; SACU area; gdp growth; world growth; real gdp; domestic demand; terms of trade; bilateral trade; economic growth; commodity prices; growth rate; trading partners; growth rates; world economy; trade deficits; business cycle; multinational firms; gdp growth rate; world markets; oil prices; global trading partners; external openness; trade changes; trade channels; terms of trade shocks; global trade; national income; gdp growth rates; trade links;

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    1. Era Dabla-Norris & Raphael A. Espinoza & Sarwat Jahan, 2012. "Spillovers to Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 12/49, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Era Dabla-Norris & Raphael Espinoza & Sarwat Jahan, 2012. "Spillovers to Low-Income Countries: Importance of systemic emerging markets," OxCarre Working Papers 082, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    3. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
    4. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Spillovers From the Rest of the World Into Sub-Saharan African Countries," IMF Working Papers 09/155, International Monetary Fund.
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